Last week, I ventured a bit too deeply into the plumbing of the global financial system with the article “THE JPY (COUNTERINTUITIVE) DOOM LOOP – THE MORE JPY LOSES VALUE, THE MORE LEVERAGE IS FORCED TO COME OFFLINE, THE MORE THE JPY LOSES VALUE” and I apologize to all those...| JustDario
Over the past few weeks, I have been delving into the “buy now pay later” (BNPL) phenomenon to determine the extent to which this sector could pose a risk to the financial system. Firstly, BNPL is not a “new thing” at all, but rather, it is the evolution of what...| JustDario
Everyone is now watching long-term government bond yields going through the roof, from Japan to the UK, from France to the US. A few months ago, Wall Street’s analysts’ expectations, along with those of many other “experts” (that I am not sure how they can be defined as such, considering...| JustDario
This is it, the point where the #BOJ cannot kick the can down the road any longer has arrived. As you know, I have written many times about the #BOJ, warning of the consequences of their unbelievably reckless actions. 🚩 $JPY CARRY TRADE – THE BIGGEST FINANCIAL TICKING TIME BOMB...| JustDario
Exactly one year ago, a parade of “experts” was making the rounds on various popular TV networks advocating for a 75 basis point emergency FED rate cut to troubleshoot the crisis in the global JPY carry trade scheme. At that time, traders in the futures market priced a 60% probability...| JustDario
Right now, the futures market is pricing only a 2.7% probability of seeing the FED delivering a 25bp rate cut in the upcoming meeting. Considering the overall economic situation, my personal view is that the FED should be tightening financial conditions further, not the opposite. However, while US inflation remains...| JustDario
There are times when I believe that if there wasn’t a massive cultural and language barrier between #China and the major Western countries, in particular with the #US (while #Germany would love to deal more with #China commercially if they still had the option to do so), both parts of...| JustDario
The Turkish Lesson Turkey’s economic collapse didn’t happen by accident—it was the result of deliberate policy choices that ignored economic fundamentals in favor of political doctrine. For years, President Erdoğan pursued a radical economic experiment that became known as “Erdoganomics”. This strategy was built on the belief that high interest...| JustDario
What are the differences between #Bitcoin and #Gold? If you put aside any personal views and stick with their pure characteristics, the two are not truly different from a monetary perspective: 1 – Both have limited supply, but at the same time, they can be divided into very minuscule units....| JustDario
More than 2 months ago in “TARIFF WARS: A NEW HOPE” and “TARIFF WARS: THE EMPIRE STRIKES BACK” I correctly made sense of the overall tariffs mess at the time, but I made a mistake too: I overestimated President Trump’s commitment to do the right thing in the interest of...| JustDario
More than one year ago in the article “IS THIS HOW BANKS ARE CONCEALING THEIR LOSSES ON SILVER SHORT POSITIONS?” I first tried to bring attention to several anomalies happening in the Silver market that could only be explained by active price manipulation activities on LBMA and COMEX contracts. Why...| JustDario
Something special happened today, or to be precise, did not happen. As Israel started its new military campaign against Iran, all risk assets in financial markets started to dive, from stock futures to crypto. Understandably, oil prices started to spike in what can potentially become a “VAR shock” event if...| JustDario
Everyone is familiar with the very large black bulky bag carried around by a U.S. military serviceman who isn’t more than a few steps away from the U.S. president at any time. Soon, a new red button will be added to the “Football”. Nuclear weapons are a deterrent meant not...| JustDario
Imagine a whole financial system (banks, insurances, and pension funds) that for decades never second-guessed the solvency and liquidity of its own country’s government bonds because no matter what, its central bank was always ready to show a bid in case there were no takers in the market. What I...| JustDario
Back in August last year I wrote the article “IF THE FED CUTS RATES, THE DAMAGES WILL BE FAR GREATER THAN THE BENEFITS” to deliver the following warnings: “To all those who advocate rate cuts because those will benefit the economy, I dare to ask where exactly the economy will...| JustDario
At the European Central Bank (#ECB), they are so adamant about cutting rates lately that they are barely sparing a single day to remind markets about it (The time is ripe to cut interest rates next week, European Central Bank’s Rehn says). But, why such a rush when, even according...| JustDario
Back in September last year in “IS THIS BLACKROCK’S MASTER PLAN FOR BITCOIN?” I described how the investment powerhouse BlackRock was laying the ground to make Bitcoin the golden goose and growth engine for its operations in the near future, considering how mature all other asset classes within the manager’s...| JustDario
One month ago in the article “DEAR DONALD, THIS BATTLE IS LOST” this is what I suggested the US administration should have done to salvage the situation: “What should the US do now? Instead of borrowing a page from -The Art Of The Deal-, Donald Trump should consider reading Sun...| JustDario
I woke up, and the first headline I saw about what had happened in the US during my sleep was “We just increased tariffs on China to 104%” from President Trump. Once again, many people were caught by surprise, even though the US President had previously warned he would take...| JustDario
US Tariffs on China currently stand at 145% after the latest increase from the White House, while nearly every other country has been granted a 90-day pause to either negotiate a deal with the US or prepare for the tariffs’ fallout on their internal economies. On Wednesday, everyone was screaming...| JustDario
If foreign countries and companies are going to have less USD going forward, who is going to buy US debt? These past few days, I have been paying close attention to the narratives and dynamics developing around the tariffs war topic, but somehow nobody has brought attention to the crucial...| JustDario
