The United States is teetering on the edge of its 22nd federal government shutdown since 1976. While markets are dismissive—assuming, as in the past, that “nothing is going to happen”—this is more than just domestic political theater. If not resolved quickly, this shutdown could become a severe stress test for...| JustDario
Thank you for waiting, but I assure you what follows isn’t going to disappoint you! Two months ago in “This time is NOT different – Part 2,” I flagged how my analysis at that time flashed (big) red warnings on several US banks (TwitterX). My analysis today will expand on...| JustDario
Last week, I ventured a bit too deeply into the plumbing of the global financial system with the article “THE JPY (COUNTERINTUITIVE) DOOM LOOP – THE MORE JPY LOSES VALUE, THE MORE LEVERAGE IS FORCED TO COME OFFLINE, THE MORE THE JPY LOSES VALUE” and I apologize to all those...| JustDario
There is a golden rule that applies to many things, especially in business and finance. That rule is: “If you want to know the truth, follow the money”. Let’s follow OpenAI’s money today, and let’s see where it leads. Here is the official record of OpenAI’s fundraising history so far:...| JustDario
On the 29th of April, something very special happened, yet many did not grasp the importance of the event. Even if that day was a public holiday in Japan, hence there was no real liquidity in the US Treasuries (both spot and related derivatives) market overnight hours as usual, the...| JustDario
Is it possible for a bank to continue operating while being insolvent? The answer is yes, and Norinchukin Bank is the best example of it at the moment. I started to follow Norinchukin closely a long time ago (article) and the reason why I continue is because this little-known bank...| JustDario
Altcoin season refers to a period in the cryptocurrency market when alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins), any digital assets besides Bitcoin, significantly outperform Bitcoin in price appreciation and trading volume. This phase is characterized by a surge in capital flowing from Bitcoin into altcoins, leading to rapid, often exponential, gains across a...| JustDario
Navigating a bear market can be daunting, especially if you’re unfamiliar with the signs and strategies to manage your investments during such times. Understanding when a bear market begins, how to trade during its course, and which assets to hold can make a significant difference in protecting your portfolio and...| JustDario
Over the past few weeks, I have been delving into the “buy now pay later” (BNPL) phenomenon to determine the extent to which this sector could pose a risk to the financial system. Firstly, BNPL is not a “new thing” at all, but rather, it is the evolution of what...| JustDario
Even if blessed with superpowers, in particular, the one of printing infinite money, the Federal Reserve is ultimately a “Bank” and like every superhero has a weak spot like Kryptonite for Superman. Being a “Bank”, hence required to remain solvent, is paradoxically the #FED’s weakness. Let me explain: 1 –...| JustDario
Everyone is now watching long-term government bond yields going through the roof, from Japan to the UK, from France to the US. A few months ago, Wall Street’s analysts’ expectations, along with those of many other “experts” (that I am not sure how they can be defined as such, considering...| JustDario
No, I am not going to begin talking about what happened yesterday with ASML. Before we get there, we need to start from the 11th of October when this article (of course totally ignored by MSM and Social Media busy broadcasting the latest phenomenal predictions Jensen Huang was spitting out...| JustDario
3 months ago, in the article “CHEF’S TABLE: NVIDIA,” I already highlighted how Nvidia’s sophistication in cooking its books reached a remarkably high level. At that time, thanks to fresh disclosure in its report, not only did we manage to figure out the whole structure Nvidia, with the support of...| JustDario
NVIDIA’s cooking of its financial earnings has reached a level of beauty and sophistication that the company should be awarded 3 Michelin stars and be featured in an episode of the popular Netflix series Chef’s Table. Get comfortable because this episode is going to be one with many “Woah!” Singapore...| JustDario
Since last Thursday, a strange tension could be sensed on trading floors in Hong Kong and China, then on Friday, the $CNY suddenly sold off against the $USD. While the event has been greatly overlooked so far by investors, it might have been a pretty loud warning about the next...| JustDario
The first time I talked about CoreWeave was more than one year ago in “IS MAGNETAR CAPITAL BLOWING AIR INTO THE NVIDIA (PONZI) SCHEME SO THEY CAN BET ON ITS IMPLOSION?” when I described how the hedge fund Magnetar Capital’s investment in CoreWeave had many similarities with the strategy they...| JustDario
This is it, the point where the #BOJ cannot kick the can down the road any longer has arrived. As you know, I have written many times about the #BOJ, warning of the consequences of their unbelievably reckless actions. 🚩 $JPY CARRY TRADE – THE BIGGEST FINANCIAL TICKING TIME BOMB...| JustDario
The Bank Of Japan (#BOJ) attempted to have its cake and eat it too, again, but this time, they didn’t have the luxury to do so anymore. The #BOJ had to decide which one to save between Japan’s economy and the global #stocks bubble, as we discussed last week (article...| JustDario
SoftBank just reported its financial earnings for the quarter ended on the 30th of June, and as I am writing, its shares are trading 10% higher on the day to a fresh all-time high. 3 months ago, I wrote “SOFTBANK GOES ALL IN ON AI WITH THE LITTLE MONEY IT...| JustDario
I do not expect many people to learn a lesson from what happened today in Hong Kong’s stock market. While the hype fades in this corner of the market, it will surely resurface in another corner. Perhaps in the US, where fraudulent trading has been running wild in the past...| JustDario
I’ve spent over a decade living in Hong Kong, regularly traveling through Mainland China—except during the Covid-19 period, for obvious reasons. While many foreigners left, I stayed, immersing myself in the region’s culture and economy. This unique vantage point gives me direct access to life in China, unfiltered, while staying...| JustDario
Things can change a lot in 9 months, particularly when you spend those 9 months trying to kneecap (metaphorically speaking) your adversary after pretending to be “besties”. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s second trip to #China is so far a total failure with little to no chance of any improvement...| JustDario
Exactly one year ago, a parade of “experts” was making the rounds on various popular TV networks advocating for a 75 basis point emergency FED rate cut to troubleshoot the crisis in the global JPY carry trade scheme. At that time, traders in the futures market priced a 60% probability...| JustDario
Right now, the futures market is pricing only a 2.7% probability of seeing the FED delivering a 25bp rate cut in the upcoming meeting. Considering the overall economic situation, my personal view is that the FED should be tightening financial conditions further, not the opposite. However, while US inflation remains...| JustDario
Q2-2025 earnings season for banks officially started with, what a surprise, JP Morgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo all beating Wall Street analysts’ expectations and once again bagging fat profits. Traders, though, aren’t so impressed so far with JPM and Citi trading flat while WFC is down 6% on the day...| JustDario
The Turkish Lesson Turkey’s economic collapse didn’t happen by accident—it was the result of deliberate policy choices that ignored economic fundamentals in favor of political doctrine. For years, President Erdoğan pursued a radical economic experiment that became known as “Erdoganomics”. This strategy was built on the belief that high interest...| JustDario
What are the differences between #Bitcoin and #Gold? If you put aside any personal views and stick with their pure characteristics, the two are not truly different from a monetary perspective: 1 – Both have limited supply, but at the same time, they can be divided into very minuscule units....| JustDario
First of all, I would like to praise The Information for its excellent work in doing proper journalism, something that nowadays is more unique than rare, sadly. Let’s start with the explosive article just published and that, of course, barely caught the attention of mainstream media that are being very...| JustDario
The Federal Reserve just released the results of its 2025 round of stress testing on 22 major US banks, and personally, I have never come across something more ridiculous and hypocritical. Let’s start with the fact that the FED itself admits how it found it appropriate to make this year’s...| JustDario
More than 2 months ago in “TARIFF WARS: A NEW HOPE” and “TARIFF WARS: THE EMPIRE STRIKES BACK” I correctly made sense of the overall tariffs mess at the time, but I made a mistake too: I overestimated President Trump’s commitment to do the right thing in the interest of...| JustDario
More than one year ago in the article “IS THIS HOW BANKS ARE CONCEALING THEIR LOSSES ON SILVER SHORT POSITIONS?” I first tried to bring attention to several anomalies happening in the Silver market that could only be explained by active price manipulation activities on LBMA and COMEX contracts. Why...| JustDario
The next BOJ policy rate decision is approaching and, of course, much speculation surrounds it. I will not join the crowd because regardless of what happens next, it won’t change Japan’s fate in the medium to long term, as I have already discussed in these articles: The BOJ decision will...| JustDario
Something special happened today, or to be precise, did not happen. As Israel started its new military campaign against Iran, all risk assets in financial markets started to dive, from stock futures to crypto. Understandably, oil prices started to spike in what can potentially become a “VAR shock” event if...| JustDario
“Why are central banks cutting rates while yields are going up? How is this possible?” This is the question many people are asking themselves at the moment. Surprisingly, those experiencing the highest degree of confusion and bewilderment appear to be institutional investors rather than retail investors. The reason is that...| JustDario
The past week has been incredibly interesting, to say the least. For the first time since the 2020 COVID crisis, we saw the FED Standing Repo Facility being tapped for a significant size by at least one bank (IF “EVERYTHING IS AWESOME” WHY THERE IS AT LEAST ONE LARGE BANK...| JustDario
BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has been by far the most successful ETF launch in the firm’s history and with ~22.5 bn USD of AUM already is set to surpass the established iShares IAU Gold ETF (~31bn$ AUM) in the near future. However, why does a firm that manages ~10.6...| JustDario
This last week started with three clowns announcing a $500B “Stargate” project that they not only lacked funding for, but that structurally made no sense whatsoever. It ended with half of Silicon Valley in panic mode after suddenly waking up from their comfortable slumber to discover that their DeepSeek nightmare...| JustDario
As per the most recent estimates, Google Search accounts for ~90% of all online searches worldwide and ~27.7% of total digital advertising revenues, followed closely in second place by Meta with ~26.8%. The global advertising revenue market surpassed 1 trillion USD for the first time in 2024 (Global ad revenue...| JustDario
At the beginning of the year, something very interesting happened around SMCI that no one, including myself, paid attention to: despite the stock hitting an all-time high of $118.81 (post-split) on March 13th and falling hard to $75 in just a month, Wall Street analysts kept increasing their target prices...| JustDario
Have you noticed how more and more people are distancing themselves from S(c)am Altman? Microsoft’s CEO, who according to his own words “bet the farm on OpenAI”, is the latest high-profile figure showing signs of frustration towards OpenAI’s CEO, despite his best efforts to hide them. Who can blame him?...| JustDario
Everyone is familiar with the very large black bulky bag carried around by a U.S. military serviceman who isn’t more than a few steps away from the U.S. president at any time. Soon, a new red button will be added to the “Football”. Nuclear weapons are a deterrent meant not...| JustDario
Imagine a whole financial system (banks, insurances, and pension funds) that for decades never second-guessed the solvency and liquidity of its own country’s government bonds because no matter what, its central bank was always ready to show a bid in case there were no takers in the market. What I...| JustDario
Back in August last year I wrote the article “IF THE FED CUTS RATES, THE DAMAGES WILL BE FAR GREATER THAN THE BENEFITS” to deliver the following warnings: “To all those who advocate rate cuts because those will benefit the economy, I dare to ask where exactly the economy will...| JustDario
While global investors are busily plucking daisy petals to decide between fear and #fomo, a (very) large elephant is crying out in pain in one corner of the globe. In a surreptitious move, #Softbank quietly rescheduled the release of their Financial Results for the entire 2023 fiscal year from the...| JustDario
The text discusses concerns about a potential resurgence of inflation, challenging the notion that central banks have successfully tamed it. Recent UK inflation data for December suggests a possible upward trend, prompting questions about the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting plans. Bond traders are adjusting their bets, and the author predicts a likely rise in interest rates unless a significant event disrupts the current pattern. The impending maturity of substantial debt in 2024 adds pressure...| JustDario
At the European Central Bank (#ECB), they are so adamant about cutting rates lately that they are barely sparing a single day to remind markets about it (The time is ripe to cut interest rates next week, European Central Bank’s Rehn says). But, why such a rush when, even according...| JustDario
Back in September last year in “IS THIS BLACKROCK’S MASTER PLAN FOR BITCOIN?” I described how the investment powerhouse BlackRock was laying the ground to make Bitcoin the golden goose and growth engine for its operations in the near future, considering how mature all other asset classes within the manager’s...| JustDario
As I am writing this article, SoftBank Group shares are up ~5% after the release of the latest Full Year earnings results. We know that traders nowadays only follow headlines that are carefully crafted to always deliver the most bullish narrative and hardly spend any time digging into the numbers...| JustDario
One month ago in the article “DEAR DONALD, THIS BATTLE IS LOST” this is what I suggested the US administration should have done to salvage the situation: “What should the US do now? Instead of borrowing a page from -The Art Of The Deal-, Donald Trump should consider reading Sun...| JustDario
Finally, the 10-Q of Bank of America has been filed, and it is now time to check how things look in reality beyond the cheerful and “everything is awesome” press release and management call of a few weeks ago when the bank, as expected, beat market expectations (TODAY “EVERYTHING WILL...| JustDario
In September 2023, I addressed for the first time the (nasty) topic of #banks’ balance sheet health in the “This time is not different” post on X. After that, I expanded the analysis to large US and European banks in “WHICH BANKS ARE AT RISK OF GOING BUST IN A...| JustDario
Today, #Norinchukin Bank is starting to be less of an obscure name compared to more than 7 months ago when the #FED quietly added it to the list of counterparts eligible to access the standing Repo Facility the central bank established with the purpose of dealing with emergency liquidity shortfalls...| JustDario
Three months ago, in “Why a Historical $JPY Currency Crisis Is at the Doorstep of Japan”, we discussed the precarious state of the Japanese yen (#JPY). Considering the volume of JPY printed, the size of Japan’s economy, and its foreign reserves, the yen should have been trading at 298 against...| JustDario
As many of you know, I am quite fond of digging deep into corporate financials. However, there is a physical limit to how much a person can cover. Furthermore, it requires a long time and experience to not miss the nuances of increasingly complex financial reporting documents. Add to this...| JustDario
Since my first article on the topic several days ago (WHO ARE TODAY’S “NINJA” SUBPRIME LENDERS? SHOCKINGLY… PENSION FUNDS), where I focused on the fact that pension funds are shockingly the predominant buyers of “Buy Now Pay Later” CLOs, I have continued my investigation into this incredibly obscure part of...| JustDario
The #Nvidia 10-Q for the latest quarter is now out, and I have to admit the company is doing an incredibly good job in covering its back from any potential legal consequences of its actions once the incredible Ponzi scheme they are part of will inevitably collapse under its own...| JustDario
