PWBM is a nonpartisan, research-based initiative that provides accurate, accessible and transparent economic analysis of public policy’s fiscal impact. Using the project’s research briefs and interactive budget tools enables analysis of legislation while it is drafted.| Penn Wharton Budget Model
We estimate that incorporating the Trump administration’s major tax proposals into the FY2025 House budget reconciliation would require that the provisions mostly sunset by December 31, 2033. Even so, primary deficits would increase by $5.1 trillion before economic effects and by $4.9 trillion after| Penn Wharton Budget Model
Many trade models fail to capture the full harm of tariffs. PWBM projects Trump’s tariffs (April 8, 2025) would reduce GDP by about 8% and wages by 7%. A middle-income household faces a $58K lifetime loss. These losses are twice as large as a revenue-equivalent corporate tax increase from 21% to 36%| Penn Wharton Budget Model
