The AI safety field often takes the central question as “when will it happen?!” That is futile: we don’t have a coherent description of what “it” is, much less how “it” would come about. Fortunately, a prediction wouldn’t be useful anyway. An AI apocalypse is possible, so we should try to avert it.| Better without AI
If probability theory were an epistemology, we’d want it to tell us how confident to be in our beliefs. Unfortunately, it can’t do that.| Meta-rationality
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A pragmatic understanding of how systematic rationality works in practice can help you level up your technical work.| Meta-rationality
“The map is not the territory”—what is it then? How do rational models actually work?| Meta-rationality
The mistaken belief that statistical methods can tell you what to believe drove the science replication crisis.| Meta-rationality
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