“…if you want utility, don’t optimize expected utility because you’re bound to lose actual utility.” Ole Peters and Oliver Hulme, May 2025. Expected-utility maximizers don’t maximize utility. – Erg…| Convex Strategies
“We are open to new ideas and critical feedback and will take onboard lessons from the last five years and adapt our approach where appropriate to best serve the American people, to whom we are acc…| Convex Strategies
“The Governing Council today decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. Based on our updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and…| Convex Strategies
Nassim Taleb introduced the concept of Wittgenstein’s ruler in the first book of his Incerto series, “Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in Markets”. He elaborated on the c…| Convex Strategies
Last month we titled our Update “Recession. Yay!” in which we said this: “As we have stated over recent months, the ‘good outcome’ would be to get to the recession, and we see people willingly buy …| Convex Strategies
“Those whose job it is to manage risk today tend to focus on the things to which probabilities can be attached and shrug their shoulders about everything else.” Niall Feguson, Oct. 2023. Decent not…| Convex Strategies
“Do you know the secret of life? One thing. Just one thing.” Curly Washburn. City Slickers, 1991. We find this a very useful, and accepted, philosophy when it comes to risk management of any activi…| Convex Strategies
If we ever had the means and resources to launch our own academy of finance and economic higher learning, we might dub it Common Sense University and, without question, would appoint Bill White as …| Convex Strategies
What role do central banks play in such philosophical concepts as “the social contract/compact” and the “consent of the governed”? That’s a pretty big rhetorical question, even for us. Central bank…| Convex Strategies
Last month, in our February 2023 Update, “Sharpe World is Nefarious”, we posed this question: “If a bank loses money in accrual books and can continue to fund the losses with government guaranteed …| Convex Strategies