AI may radically accelerate technology development. That might be extremely good or extremely bad. There are currently no good explanations for how either would happen, so it’s hard to predict which, or when, or whether. The understanding necessary to guide the future to a good outcome may depend more on uncovering causes of technological progress than on reasoning about AI.| Better without AI
We’re experimenting with publishing more of our internal thoughts publicly. This piece may be less polished than our normal blog articles. Running AI Safety Fundamentals’ AI alignment and AI governance courses, we often have difficulty finding resources that hit our learning objectives well. Where we can find resources, often they’re not focused on what we want, or are hard for […]| BlueDot Impact
How might AI-enabled oligarchies arise?| adamjones.me
Everyone who starts thinking about AI starts thinking big. Alan Turing predicted that machine intelligence would ma…| www.lesswrong.com
By David W. Thanks to Wil Perkins, Grant Fleming, Thomas Larsen, Declan Nishiyama, and Frank McBride for feedback on this post. Thanks also to Paul Christiano, Daniel Kokotajlo, and Aaron Scher for…| AI Optimism
The long view of economic history says we're in the midst of a huge, unsustainable acceleration. What happens next?| Cold Takes
PASTA: Process for Automating Scientific and Technological Advancement.| Cold Takes
Why would we program AI that wants to harm us? Because we might not know how to do otherwise.| Cold Takes
We, the people living in this century, have the chance to have a huge impact on huge numbers of people to come - if we can make sense of the situation enough to find helpful actions.| Cold Takes
People are far better at their jobs than at anything else. Here are the best ways to help the most important century go well.| Cold Takes
What the best available forecasting methods say - and why there's no "expert field" for this topic.| Cold Takes
Hypothetical stories where the world tries, but fails, to avert a global disaster.| Cold Takes
An overview of key potential factors (not just alignment risk) for whether things go well or poorly with transformative AI. https://www.cold-takes.com/transformative-ai-issues-not-just-misalignment-an-overview/| Cold Takes
Push AI forward too fast, and catastrophe could occur. Too slow, and someone else less cautious could do it. Is there a safe course?| Cold Takes
A few ways we might get very powerful AI systems to be safe.| Cold Takes
Four analogies for why "We don't see any misbehavior by this AI" isn't enough.| Cold Takes
Today's AI development methods risk training AIs to be deceptive, manipulative and ambitious. This might not be easy to fix as it comes up.| Cold Takes
The "most important century" series of blog posts argues that the 21st century could be the most important century ever for humanity, via the development of advanced AI systems that could dramatically speed up scientific and technological advancement, getting us more quickly than most people imagine to a deeply unfamiliar| Cold Takes
How big a deal could AI misalignment be? About as big as it gets.| Cold Takes