“The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.” Jerome…| Convex Strategies
Nassim Taleb introduced the concept of Wittgenstein’s ruler in the first book of his Incerto series, “Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in Markets”. He elaborated on the c…| Convex Strategies
“To ensure that a central bank does not prioritise the solvency of the sovereign over its primary mandate of price stability, the European treaties prohibit monetary state financing. In its public …| Convex Strategies
Last month we titled our Update “Recession. Yay!” in which we said this: “As we have stated over recent months, the ‘good outcome’ would be to get to the recession, and we see people willingly buy …| Convex Strategies
Sorry, but we must return to our often-used Hayek quote yet again. “We are ready to accept almost any explanation of the present crisis of our civilization except one: that the present state of the…| Convex Strategies
“Those whose job it is to manage risk today tend to focus on the things to which probabilities can be attached and shrug their shoulders about everything else.” Niall Feguson, Oct. 2023. Decent not…| Convex Strategies
In what could prove to be a pivotal month, September saw a swath of central banks pause at what many hope will be the end of the historically swift monetary policy tightening cycle. The Federal Res…| Convex Strategies
In our discussions last month about entropy, we introduced the term “arrow of time”. “Like with all things that live in non-ergodic, path dependent space, time dependence matters. Something that ma…| Convex Strategies
It was a busy cycle for policymakers to close out the month. The Federal Reserve raised their Fed Funds target another 25bp, from 5.25% to 5.50%, and reiterated their commitment to battling inflati…| Convex Strategies
“Do you know the secret of life? One thing. Just one thing.” Curly Washburn. City Slickers, 1991. We find this a very useful, and accepted, philosophy when it comes to risk management of any activi…| Convex Strategies