Context The Arising Intelligence tournament is being run on Hypermind [https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/nav/navigator.html?view=challenges], consisting of "questions about progress toward general artificial intelligence". There are versions of each question resolving in each year from 2022 to 2025. There are $30,000 worth of| Foxy Scout
Last August, my research group created a forecasting contest [https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/ai-forecasting/] to predict AI progress on four benchmarks. Forecasts were asked to predict state-of-the-art performance (SOTA) on each benchmark for June 30th 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025. It’s now past June 30th, so we can evaluate| Bounded Regret