Deriving the laws of probability through superforecasting| www.argmin.net
Probabilistic rationalism encourages you to view the whole world as a gigantic casino—but mostly it is not like that.| Meta-rationality
If probability theory were an epistemology, we’d want it to tell us how confident to be in our beliefs. Unfortunately, it can’t do that.| Meta-rationality
1. Introduction: the many roles of analogy| plato.stanford.edu
1. Introduction| plato.stanford.edu