What if you could experience what it’s like to make decisions when the actions and outcomes available to you are truly uncertain? That’s what| vaughntan.org
tl;dr: I’m looking for — or would like to build — games that operationalise true uncertainty, not just simple risk, to help players become better at| vaughntan.org
tl;dr: Anthropic’s experiment with using Claude as an autonomous shopkeeper (“Claudius”) failed — not just because the AI was gullible, but because| vaughntan.org
Formal risk (which is comfortingly quantifiable and optimisable) is not the same thing as true uncertainty. At this moment, it’s not an exaggeration| vaughntan.org
This is the pre-reading for the 12th episode in a series of conversations exploring how to relate better to not-knowing. tl;dr: A mindset for| vaughntan.org
This is the reading for the 11th episode in my monthly discussion series on not-knowing. tl;dr: A mindset is a set of assumptions which shape what| vaughntan.org
tl;dr: This post is about five ways we might not-know about the value of outcomes. This is the reading for the eighth episode in my series of| vaughntan.org
tl;dr: This post is about the five ways we might not-know about the relationships between actions and outcomes — in other words, five types of| vaughntan.org
Warning: Ideas and analysis in this post are still being baked. This is the reading for the 22/6/2023 discussion that’s part of my monthly| vaughntan.org
This essay is different from the ones that came before it in this series on aspects of not-knowing. The main difference is that I’m very actively| vaughntan.org
So far, a huge amount of trying to wrap my head around not-knowing has been working on clearing the ground. By this I mean working out how we use| vaughntan.org
This is a summary of the fifth session in the InterIntellect series on not-knowing, which happened on 18 May 2023. Upcoming: “Actions and results,”| vaughntan.org
This article is about the complicated emotional backdrop for why we don’t think clearly about situations of not-knowing. Why does this matter?| vaughntan.org
This issue is about sensing when something has an inside which is coherent with its outside. It ranges over the Golden Triangle (of the Luberon), stone walls in New England, the Auvergne, and the south of France, crappy particleboard furniture, and the genesis for my current preoccupation with not-knowing.| uncertaintymindset.substack.com
Most people don’t find thinking about not-knowing as inexhaustibly fascinating as I do. Their view, loosely, is that “if not-knowing is unavoidable,| vaughntan.org
How — and why — I'm trying to understand not-knowing ... but explained through the lens of two approaches to working in wood. YMMV.| uncertaintymindset.substack.com
What follows is an introduction to not-knowing (first published in my Substack newsletter), which covers The origin story for the discussion series| vaughntan.org
tl;dr: Happiness results from being curious about the world around you, being free to take action, being effective in the actions that you take, and| vaughntan.org
tl;dr: We’re culturally and socially conditioned to avoid not-knowing or pretend it doesn’t exist. This conditioning is a form of learned| vaughntan.org
tl;dr: We need to be vigilant about mindset mismatch because serious mindset mismatch causes bad decisionmaking which often leads to terrible| vaughntan.org
tl;dr: Mindset mismatch is when the mindset you use to interpret and act in the world inaccurately reflects reality. All mindsets are inaccurate in| vaughntan.org
This article is part of a project on not-knowing. Here is a problem: Organizations (businesses, non-profits, governments, NGOs) know that| vaughntan.org
tl;dr: This article argues that thinking clearly about risk is essential to making good decisions and achieving good outcomes in situations of| vaughntan.org