Based on what most of us would have thought possible a year or two ago, the election of Donald Trump was one of the most shocking events in American political h…| FiveThirtyEight
We’ve been publishing election models for more than 10 years now, and FiveThirtyEight’s 2018 House model is probably the most work we’ve ever put into one of th…| FiveThirtyEight
The media’s demand for certainty -- and its lack of statistical rigor -- is a bad match for our complex world.| FiveThirtyEight
Biden needs a more robust electoral map.| www.natesilver.net
As our model launches, either Biden or Trump could easily win — but the odds are in the ex-president’s favor.| www.natesilver.net
So why won't the media admit as much?| FiveThirtyEight
There's no shortage of explanations for why young voters are unhappy with Biden — without having to unskew the polls.| www.natesilver.net
Let’s give a big round of applause to the pollsters. Measuring public opinion is, in many ways, harder than ever — and yet, the polling industry just had one of…| FiveThirtyEight