Financial reporting, equity analysis and equity valuation insights for investors| The Footnotes Analyst
Pension accounting can produce some odd results, such as companies that report a pension surplus, but which still make ‘deficit reduction’ cash contributions. This illustrates an underlying problem in financial reporting where pension assets and liabilities may not reflect the true economic position of the sponsoring company. We think the increasing closure of defined benefit schemes to new accrual, and the growing trend to de-risk, including the use of pension buy-ins and buy-outs, makes...| The Footnotes Analyst
Acquisitions of struggling banks are producing record profits due to negative goodwill ‘bargain purchase gains’. The Q1 2023 earnings of Citizens Bank was $9,504m compared with $264m in the same period last year, largely due to its Silicon Valley Bank deal. Negative goodwill arising from business combinations is reported as an immediate profit under both IFRS and US GAAP; but does it really represent an increase in shareholder value? We explain the meaning of negative goodwill, its releva...| The Footnotes Analyst
Swiss pharma company Novartis provides investors with its own calculation of an EV/EBITDA multiple. However, in our view, the EV is inconsistent with EBITDA. We review the company’s calculation and suggest amendments to ensure it better captures the value of Novartis’ core business. To derive useful valuation multiples, you must be consistent. Our main adjustment to the Novartis calculation relates to the value of their stake in fellow Swiss pharma company Roche.| The Footnotes Analyst
Considering the market’s focus on earnings, other comprehensive income (OCI) can be easily overlooked by investors. We think OCI is always important in equity analysis, but if you use a residual income approach to valuation the requirement for a ‘clean surplus’ in your model makes it vital to consider gains and losses reported outside profit and loss. We explain clean surplus accounting and why residual income valuations only work if your forecast financial statements meet the clean sur...| The Footnotes Analyst
Discounted cash flow and similar valuation methods are often cited as the only way to derive an intrinsic value of an equity investment that does not depend on how other assets are priced by the market. In contrast, valuation multiples, such as a price earnings ratio or EV/EBITDA, merely identify value relative to other assets. However, this view is not only simplistic - both DCF and valuation multiples can be used in a so-called absolute and relative sense – but it can also be incorrect....| The Footnotes Analyst
Whether you view Bitcoin as a modern-day tulip bulb mania bubble, that will inevitably burst, or an unstoppable development in finance, one thing is certain, companies are increasingly purchasing this asset. But how do Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies affect reported financial position and performance metrics? There are no accounting rules dedicated to cryptocurrencies. Under current US GAAP and, usually under IFRS, intangible asset accounting is applied. We use the reporting by MicroStrate...| The Footnotes Analyst
A change in accounting, such as the introduction of IFRS 16, does not in itself change underlying economics. It follows that equity values derived from DCF models should also be unchanged. However, the IFRS 16 lease accounting changes seem to be creating some confusion. We explain how to correctly adjust your DCF calculations and provide an interactive pre and post lease capitalisation model to illustrate. IFRS 16 makes DCF analysis easier and less prone to error; leaving your model based on ...| The Footnotes Analyst
Convertible bond issuance is at a record high, with companies ‘benefiting’ from low interest rates and high equity volatility. However, convertibles are not the cheap form of financing that is sometimes claimed, nor do we think that so-called ‘hedging’ transactions, which often accompany convertible issues, create value for investors.| The Footnotes Analyst
Assets measured at cost are subject to impairment testing and potential write-down if there has been a decline in value. However, unclear impairment indicators, subjective measurement and the ability to use so-called value-in-use may mean that accounting impairments do not equal the change in economic value. We discuss the impairment process for investments in associated companies that are subject to equity accounting. In the case of French media company Vivendi’s investment in Telecom It...| The Footnotes Analyst
Once every decade or so accountants fret over goodwill and reconsider how best to report it in financial statements - should it be amortised, impaired, amortised and impaired, or something else? There is no obvious right answer, positions are entrenched, and debate usually gets nowhere. The problem is that neither amortisation nor impairment provides much help for investors. The debate needs to move on to what really matters – reporting about business value. There are already encouraging mo...| The Footnotes Analyst
Few people seem to be satisfied with intangible asset accounting; depending on your perspective, there is either not enough or far too much of it. What is clear is that many valuable intangible assets go unrecognised in financial statements. The result is distorted financial ratios, including price to book. The lack of intangible asset recognition means that most investors know to use book value with caution. This may not be the case for index providers, ‘smart beta’ funds and quant-based...| The Footnotes Analyst
Like many companies, AstraZeneca excludes intangible asset amortisation from its adjusted performance metrics. The stock currently trades at a price earnings ratio of 23x based on ‘core’ 2018 earnings, but without the add back the PE would be about 37x. Is the add back justified? And if so do companies add back the right amount? The intangible amortisation problem in equity analysis arises from the inconsistency between the accounting for purchased and self-developed intangible assets. We...| The Footnotes Analyst
A largely cost-based measurement approach in financial reporting generally provides sufficient information about operating ‘flows’ to enable investors to apply enterprise value based DCF (or DCF proxy) valuation models. However, fair values are crucial for the ‘bridge’ from enterprise to equity value. Fair values are available for many, but not all, of the assets, liabilities and equity claims that should be included in the enterprise to equity bridge. We explain the limitations of cu...| The Footnotes Analyst
Changes to convertible bond accounting under US GAAP will mean higher reported debt but, paradoxically, a lower (and sometimes zero) interest expense. In our view, the resulting increase in earnings is artificial, fails to faithfully represent the cost of convertible financing and will not benefit investors. The recent surge in convertible issuance, and the use of so-called convertible bond hedges, may have more to do with favourable accounting than favourable economics. We use the recent con...| The Footnotes Analyst
A forecast of profit is used for both valuation multiples and as a starting point in deriving free cash flow for DCF valuations. But should you use a forecast of the reported IFRS or GAAP measure, or a forecast of the adjusted non-IFRS or non-GAAP alternative performance measure (APM) presented by management? We think equity valuations should be based on forecasts of reported IFRS or GAAP earnings (albeit with some adjustment related to intangible assets). Forecasts of management APMs can b...| The Footnotes Analyst
Investors are paying increased attention to risks and opportunities arising from sustainability related issues, particularly the effects of climate change and related ‘net-zero’ commitments made by many companies. Some sustainability risks directly affect financial statements, but you need to look further when considering inputs for equity valuation. Risk affects different aspects of equity valuation. It is well known that risk factors affect the discount rate, but the impact on other val...| The Footnotes Analyst
The IASB will shortly issue its new international standard for the presentation of financial statements - IFRS 18. Changes that will benefit investors include a prescribed operating-investing-financing structure for the income statement, new defined subtotals, additional disaggregation, and a more relevant cash flow presentation. IFRS 18 will better align financial reporting with equity analysis and provide additional and more comparable data to facilitate that analysis, including data that s...| The Footnotes Analyst
Equity beta is a valid measure of investment risk and an important metric in equity analysis. However, don’t just plug into your models the equity beta given by a data provider - beta should be analysed and adjusted by investors with the same diligence that is applied to performance metrics. We present an interactive equity beta analysis model to assist investors in better understanding the drivers of equity beta and its application in equity valuation. The model features the calculation of...| The Footnotes Analyst
Residual income based valuations are a useful alternative to the more common discounted cash flow. While both approaches must produce the same answer for a given set of assumptions and value drivers, we think it can be easier to derive realistic inputs using the residual income approach, considering the focus on return on investment. However, residual income also poses challenges. The approach requires ‘clean surplus’ accounting, return inputs must allow for accounting distortions due to ...| The Footnotes Analyst
Investors require financial data that is comparable over time, comparable within a single set of financial statements, and comparable between companies. Unfortunately, this is not always the case. We explain how differences between IFRS and US GAAP, accounting policy options, differing interpretations and accounting estimates, can all reduce comparability. Convergence and comparability should be a priority for the IASB and FASB. Present consultations by the IASB and FASB regarding the account...| The Footnotes Analyst