Based on what most of us would have thought possible a year or two ago, the election of Donald Trump was one of the most shocking events in American political h…| FiveThirtyEight
Tuesday was another pretty good day of polling for Donald Trump. It’s also not an easy day to characterize given the large number of polls published. You could …| FiveThirtyEight
Here at FiveThirtyEight, our favorite election-related chart is what we officially call the “winding path to 270 electoral votes” and unofficially call the snak…| FiveThirtyEight
The media’s demand for certainty -- and its lack of statistical rigor -- is a bad match for our complex world.| FiveThirtyEight
Find the EV maximizer—and degenerate gambler—in yourself. Just be careful not to destroy the world.| mattglassman.substack.com
So why won't the media admit as much?| FiveThirtyEight
Today, voters will head to the polls to vote for a congressional representative to fill the vacancy created by former Representative George Santos’ expulsion. Both Republicans and Democrats expect …| Split Ticket
Even at the end of a presidential campaign, polls don’t perfectly predict the final margin in the election. Sometimes the final polls are quite accurate. An ave…| FiveThirtyEight