Exploring how the leading AI country could achieve economic dominance through superexponential growth dynamics. Analysis of trade, technological diffusion, and space resource scenarios that could enable one nation to control >99% of global output post-AGI.| Forethought
Superintelligence will give a decisive economic and military advantage. China isn’t at all out of the game yet. In the race to AGI, the free world’s very survival will be at stake. Can we maintain our preeminence over the authoritarian powers? And will we manage to avoid self-destruction along the way? The story of the| SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
This is Part 0 of a four-part report — see links to Part 1. Part 2. Part 3, and a folder with more materials. Abstract In the next few decades we may develop AI that can automate ~all cognitive tasks and dramatically transform the world. By contrast, today the capabilities and impact of AI are much […]| Open Philanthropy
This report evaluates the likelihood of ‘explosive growth’, meaning > 30% annual growth of gross world product (GWP), occurring by 2100. Although frontier GDP/capita growth has been constant for 150 years, over the last 10,000 years GWP growth has accelerated significantly. Endogenous growth theory, together with the empirical fact of the demographic transition, can explain […]| Open Philanthropy
A collection of the best technical, social, and economic arguments| zhengdongwang.com
A collection of the best technical, social, and economic arguments Humans have a good track record of innovation. The mechanization of agriculture, steam engines, electricity, modern medicine, computers, and the internet—these technologies radically changed the world. Still, the trend growth rate of GDP per capita in the world's frontier| The Gradient
Effective altruism is a project that aims to find the best ways to help others, and put them into practice. It’s partly a research field, which aims to identify the world’s most pressing problems and| www.effectivealtruism.org