Wall Street University: Betting Markets
What the 2020 Presidential Election teaches us about Portfolio Theory (and vice versa)| Nick Yoder
On the last day of UX London this year, I was sitting and chatting with Rachel Coldicutt who was going to be giving the closing keynote. Inevitably the topic of converstation worked its way ’round to “AI”. I remember Rachel having a good laugh when I summarised my overall feeling: I kind of wish I could go into suspended animation and be woken up when all this is over and things have settled down one way or another. I still feel that way. Like Gina, I’d welcome a measured approach to ...| Adactio: Journal
Cursor has released its latest AI software development platform with a new multi-agent interface and the debut of its coding model, Composer. The new Composer model is described as a “frontier model”. Cursor claims it is four times faster than other models of similar intelligence. The company built it specifically for “low-latency agentic coding” within […] The post Cursor 2.0 pivots to multi-agent AI coding, debuts Composer model appeared first on AI News.| AI News
What the 2020 Presidential Election teaches us about Portfolio Theory (and vice versa)| Nick Yoder
This is not supposed to be happening, according to the climate models. Symbol image: NASA While the headlines relentlessly holler about “exploding global warming” and “dramatic melting” of the polar caps, the South Pole is telling a starkly different story. Here reports Germany’s Report 24. On October 15, the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station registered an […]| NoTricksZone
Systems thinking ideally leads to humility, but can also promote a false sense of mastery and next-level "solutioneering." Continue reading →| Do the Math
When I talk about large language models, I make sure to call them large language models, not “AI”. I know it’s a lost battle, but the terminology matters to me. The term “AI” can encompass everything from a series of if/else statements right up to Skynet and HAL 9000. I’ve written about this naming collision before. It’s not just that the term “AI” isn’t useful, it’s so broad as to be actively duplicitous. While talking about one thing—like, say, large language models...| Adactio: Journal
Full list of 20 XL ships was released today at NYCC along with images of some models.| TrekMovie.com
Fanhome is also bringing the creators and stars of 'Prodigy' to the show to sign Voyager-A models.| TrekMovie.com
Over the past few decades, it seems that wherever you turn, you’re seeing things about losing weight or being skinny. Billboards, advertisements, even supplements in stores promote thinness, but how did we get to this point? Why has skinny come back around to being the ideal body type in recent society? It wasn’t always...| a magazine
When potential buyers view a property, they are looking for more than just a nice kitchen or a big backyard. They are searching for clues—subtle signals that a home has been genuinely cared for, not just quickly staged for a sale. While major upgrades are obvious, it is often the small, overlooked details that tell […]| Osborne Goddard Team
Iman reflects on her iconic 50 years in fashion, becoming a grandmother, and more as this year's Fashion Legend award recipient.| Daily Front Row
With her recent Rizzoli book The ’90s just out and a new Staley-Wise Gallery exhibit, Pamela Hanson is finally getting her flowers.| Daily Front Row
Participatory action research and evaluation intentionally include the people most affected by an inquiry in the design and execution of the process.| Najboljša Spletna Igralnica
The Parent Leadership Indicators Framework describes indicators that can be used for participatory evaluations of parent leadership organizations.| Najboljša Spletna Igralnica
September feels like a time for recommitment. A chance to pick things back up, or begin again with a little more focus. The post Turning of Attention appeared first on thejaymo.| thejaymo
Utilizing AI’s evidence-streamlining capabilities, a new study (with “Grok” literally positioned as the lead author) summarizes a few of the key counterpoints undermining the CO2-drives-climate narrative.| NoTricksZone
Use this model to derive ‘target’ enterprise value multiples that are consistent with specified value drivers, including measures of growth, return on investment, margins and capital intensity. The model is based on an underlying 2-stage DCF methodology. We explain its derivation, the key assumptions and how to select appropriate value driver inputs.| The Footnotes Analyst
Despite some pro-Palestinian participants in the audience shouting encouragement, after the model finished walking the first part of the runway, she was| www.israelhayom.com
Claude 4 achieves 72.7% on SWE-bench Verified, surpassing OpenAI's latest models. After 24 hours of intensive testing with real-world coding challenges, here's what this breakthrough means for developers.| forgecode.dev
(This is a repost of a document living here, but I am putting it here for backup's sake. Originally a joint effort with Murali Suriar, with input from Matt Brown, Liz Fong-Jones, and many others. The intended audience of this doc is the recently laid-off, or those who| RelyAbility Blog
Today, I believe we cannot successfully answer several key questions about SRE. Let's start with the most important one: how can we understand what reliability customers want and need?| RelyAbility Blog
Whether you’re generating slop or code, underneath it’s the same shoggoth with a smiley face.| adactio.com
The 2025 first quarter GDP data came in slightly bad: negative 0.3%. I think the number is a bit hard to interpret right now, but it’s hard to spin away a negative number. A big factor pullin…| Economist Writing Every Day
A lot has happened this month, especially with the releases of new flagship models like GPT-4.5 and Llama 4. But you might have noticed that reactions to the...| Sebastian Raschka, PhD
https://hidekazu-konishi.com/entry/amazon_bedrock_models_as_of_2024.html Amazon Bedrock Models as of 2024 - An Analysis of the Comprehensive Model Catalog.| Hidekazu Konishi - Profile / Biography | hidekazu-konishi.com
(if you haven’t seen our 3-candidate-preferred explorer for the 2018 Victorian state election, click here) Preferential voting and the three-candidate-preferred Historically, the outcome of Australian elections is often summed up using some version of the two-party pendulum, where seats are ordered based on the margin between the final two candidates (the two-candidate-preferred, or 2cp) asContinue Reading... How our Model of Preference Distribution Works (and How Accurate Is it?)Continue R...| Armarium Interreta
A collection of details from the final forecast and random findings, each too small for a separate piece. Normally, we’d have an Upside/Downside piece, but Rebekah’s run into some technical difficulties – turns out multiverse travel isn’t as easy as the Marvel Cinematic Universe makes it look. I think the broad picture will be familiarContinue Reading... Federal Election 2022 MiscellanyContinue Reading...| Armarium Interreta
Voting Intention In The Final Week Currently, Labor maintains a lead of about 54% on a 2-party-preferred (2pp) basis against the Coalition. This has gone up and down a little in recent weeks but the overall picture remains the same – Labor’s 2-party lead remains about double what it was in 2019, and a muchContinue Reading... A Repeat of the 2019 Polling Error Would Still See Labor AheadContinue Reading...| Armarium Interreta
A follow-up to our piece on improving uniform swing, prompted by an interesting question about the problem of seat realignments.| Armarium Interreta
How data from older elections can help, and why our forecast differs from a uniform swing in its prognostications for Colton and Hartley.| Armarium Interreta
We’ve built a forecast for the 2022 South Australian state election. Some background on the election, and how our model works.| Armarium Interreta
(My analysis in this piece builds on the excellent work done by Dr Kevin Bonham on the same topic, linked here; it is very much worth a read) If you’ve read articles dissecting opinion polls in the media, you’ve almost certainly come across a statement of one of the following forms: Alongside strong results onContinue Reading... Approval Ratings Are Rubbish, But They Have ValueContinue Reading...| Armarium Interreta
In Australian politics, there’s often some discussion over whether a certain 2-party swing would be enough for one side or another to win a majority, with reference to the electoral pendulum prior to the election. Such a pendulum lines up all the Labor-held seats on one side, and all the Coalition-held seats on another, andContinue Reading... How Predictive is the Pre-Election Pendulum?Continue Reading...| Armarium Interreta
Veteran watchers of politics may be familiar with the old saying, “It’s the economy, stupid”. It’s a saying coined by the campaign of a challenger who unseated a seemingly-formidable incumbent amidst an unexpected recession, encapsulating the simple theory that voters tend to reward governments who have presided over a strong economy while tossing out thoseContinue Reading... How Much Impact Does The Economy Have on Australian Federal Elections?Continue Reading...| Armarium Interreta
Note: a fair bit more technical than usual, if you want to skip to what voting intention may have looked like with an honeymoon-adjusted left-anchored model in 2016-2019, click here. If you just want to read the summary for what this means for polling in the current (2019 – 2021/2022) term, click here. My interestContinue Reading... Anchoring, Honeymoons, and Voting Intention in the 2016 – 2019 TermContinue Reading...| Armarium Interreta
An analysis of how the seat vote model in Meridiem performed, and some analysis of possible areas of improvement for election modelling.| Armarium Interreta
What ended up happening Although there are still some votes to go, at this point, all districts in the 2021 Western Australian state election have pretty much been “decided” – i.e. the remaining vote to be counted is very unlikely to change the winner of the seat. Labor looks to have won 53 of theContinue Reading... How Meridiem performed – Part IContinue Reading...| Armarium Interreta
If you haven’t had a look at our Western Australian 2021 forecast yet, it’s up and running here. Forecasts are useful little devils – they help to translate certain pieces of evidence (e.g. a poll saying Labor is ahead 68-32) into useful information (e.g. that means that given historical accuracy, Labor has a greater thanContinue Reading... How we intend to judge our WA 2021 forecastContinue Reading...| Armarium Interreta
Introduction (I promise this part is relevant) Let’s say you live somewhere in a rural town in the middle of the Australian outback. You come across a random person ranting about how there’s a giant arctic wolf running around and eating people. Do you believe them? Do you take shelter immediately and start checking forContinue Reading... Arctic Wolves in PollingContinue Reading...| Armarium Interreta
Introduction Welcome to our first Australian election forecast! If you haven’t seen it already, check out the forecast page over here. (if you want to skip the background and commentary, click here) Western Australians go to the polls on 13/March/2021 to elect a new state government, and the result is considered to be all butContinue Reading... How our Western Australia state model works (Meridiem 2021)Continue Reading...| Armarium Interreta
Do you invest in both IFRS and US GAAP reporters? If so, then in recent financial statements you might have noticed differences in the accounting for leases. This could result in a significant lack of comparability in key metrics. Both IFRS and US GAAP now better reflect the economics of leasing and so the old adjustments to capitalise operating leases are no longer necessary. Unfortunately, you now need to make other adjustments to get comparability between US and IFRS reporters. We expla...| The Footnotes Analyst
If a valuation multiple, such as EV/EBITDA, is used to calculate a DCF terminal value, the multiple should reflect expected business dynamics at the end of the explicit forecast period and not at the valuation date. This is best achieved by basing the exit multiple on forward-priced multiples for the selected group of comparable companies. We explain and illustrate with an interactive model the use of forward-priced multiples in DCF. We also discuss the choice of multiple (including why EV/EB...| The Footnotes Analyst
Redefining Stammering, Sam Simpson| Redefining Stammering
Rewrite rules are organized via a graphical syntax into discrete-time simulations which can be understood as agent-based models. This representation is transparent, compositional, and serializable.| blog.algebraicjulia.org
In the previous post, we defined a general approach for composing dynamical systems based on the mathematics of operads and operad algebras. In this post, we explore an undirected composition syntax in which dynamical systems compose by sharing resources. We also get a taste of hierarchical composition, i.e. composing systems which are themselves composites.| blog.algebraicjulia.org
Informally, many models are specified as compositions of primitive dynamical systems. In this series of posts, we make this modular specification formal by introducing a computing framework from composing open dynamical systems. In this first post of the series, we examine directed theories for composition.| blog.algebraicjulia.org
Following up the original post, we explain how modeling is simplified by a shift in perspective from composing structured cospans in categorical style to composing structured multicospans in operadic style.| blog.algebraicjulia.org
Structured cospans are a categorical method for turning closed systems into open ones. We show how structured cospans of Petri nets can be used to construct complex epidemiological models in a compositional way.| blog.algebraicjulia.org
What is a scientific model? This post considers how mathematical logic and category theory can help us understand scientific models, and how AlgebraicJulia aims to build modeling frameworks based on this understanding.| blog.algebraicjulia.org
As the presidential race finishes out the last two weeks, it’s clearly a close race. In the past I have recommended prediction markets, and right now these are giving Trump about 60% odds. Th…| Economist Writing Every Day
This is a topic of intermediate complexity in SLOs. If you are coming to this cold, we recommend you read a few other pieces about SLOs first, then this will make a fair bit more sense to you. SLOs, as you may know, have a dual nature: they have both| RelyAbility Blog
Read about the evolution of Catwalk, Grab's model serving platform, from its inception to its current state. Discover how it has evolved to meet the needs of Grab's growing machine learning model serving requirements.| Grab Tech
Maria Klaumann reflects on her career so far after being named The Daily Front Row's Breakthrough Model of the Year.| Daily Front Row
Recently we at Stanza have been exploring operational data, and it's been really exciting to bring techniques and ideas from other domains into our domain - production systems generally, traffic, alerting, cloud costs, etc. The thing we’ve been looking at most recently is a thing called Benford’s Law.| RelyAbility Blog
This week I was in Turku, Finland for the annual congress of the European Society for Evolutionary Biology. I presented in the symposium on mathematical models in evolutionary biology organized by Guy Cooper, Matishalin Patel, Tom Scott, and Asher Leeks. It was a fun. It was also a big challenge given the short ten minute […]| Theory, Evolution, and Games Group
Self-hosted sabotage as a form of collective action.| adactio.com
Whether you're just starting to test your printer or working to refine it to perfection, we have all the best test and calibration modules you need.| OctoEverywhere Blog
Software cannot be shown to be stable, and so it’s safer to assume it isn’t.| RelyAbility Blog
Atmosphere Models| degenerateconic.com
Comments/Insights/Contributions from * Niall Murphy * Toby Burress * Štěpán Davidovič * Sal Furino (Note that when I say "we" below, I don't specifically intend to speak for these fine people, I'm just using the academic "we". -Niall) Introduction If you don’t already know about SLOs, we can recommend Alex Hidalgo’| RelyAbility Blog
Some businesses are recognizing that tradtional services may be redundant. We found this out the hard way, while ordering a pizza.| blog.benwinding
For WPC: Get in touch if you’re in Oslo and want to do some model shoots.| Cardinal Guzman
