When we handicapped our initial Senate ratings, we noted that this cycle might finally be the year that the Class 1 Senate map (which held contests back in 2018, 2012, 2006, and so forth) turns on …| Split Ticket
When we introduced our House model in June, Republicans and Democrats were favored in 211 seats each with 13 districts counted as tossups. At the time, Republicans had a 56% chance of retaining the…| Split Ticket
Over the last several years, Black voters have been perhaps the most pivotal voting bloc fueling Joe Biden’s presidential aspirations. A core group of the Democratic Party, they comprise roughly 25…| Split Ticket
President Joe Biden trails former President Donald Trump by one point in a survey conducted by Split Ticket and Data For Progress. The poll was conducted online between July 1–3, 2024 with a sample…| Split Ticket
The 2024 House playing field has changed significantly since our previous official ratings update in September. In our last update, 210 seats favored Democrats and 203 favored Republicans, while th…| Split Ticket
Earlier this week, Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema announced that she would not run for re-election, ending months of speculation about the possibility of a three-way contest. This development is a …| Split Ticket
Today, voters will head to the polls to vote for a congressional representative to fill the vacancy created by former Representative George Santos’ expulsion. Both Republicans and Democrats expect …| Split Ticket
Former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan has recently announced a surprise run for the Old Line State’s open Senate seat. Hogan, a Trump critic who towed a moderate line, left office in 2023 as one of …| Split Ticket
Political battles over education are a tale as old as the government itself. From the creation of public schooling in the 1700s to clashes over book bans stretching into the modern era, education h…| Split Ticket
Most coverage of the 2024 Senate elections frames the race for the majority as resting on a knife’s edge. The logic, on paper, is sound — after all, Republicans need to flip at least two seats to t…| Split Ticket
The Upper Mississippi Delta region is home to some of the strongest and most intractable racial polarization anywhere in the country. Since the mass re-enfranchisement of black voters in the 1960s,…| Split Ticket
Media coverage of elections has presented theories of how abortion-focused messaging has allowed Democrats to beat expectations. From June 2022 and beyond, this has largely been true — with the vot…| Split Ticket
One of the biggest open questions is why recent Democratic special election performances continue to paint a completely different electoral picture than what current polling suggests. Polls continu…| Split Ticket