When we handicapped our initial Senate ratings, we noted that this cycle might finally be the year that the Class 1 Senate map (which held contests back in 2018, 2012, 2006, and so forth) turns on …| Split Ticket
When we introduced our House model in June, Republicans and Democrats were favored in 211 seats each with 13 districts counted as tossups. At the time, Republicans had a 56% chance of retaining the…| Split Ticket
The 2024 House playing field has changed significantly since our previous official ratings update in September. In our last update, 210 seats favored Democrats and 203 favored Republicans, while th…| Split Ticket
Earlier this week, Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema announced that she would not run for re-election, ending months of speculation about the possibility of a three-way contest. This development is a …| Split Ticket
Former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan has recently announced a surprise run for the Old Line State’s open Senate seat. Hogan, a Trump critic who towed a moderate line, left office in 2023 as one of …| Split Ticket
Most coverage of the 2024 Senate elections frames the race for the majority as resting on a knife’s edge. The logic, on paper, is sound — after all, Republicans need to flip at least two seats to t…| Split Ticket