The housing market experienced historically low levels of inventory along with rapid price growth in the two years following the onset of the pandemic. Analysis of national and county-level housing data suggests this price surge was fueled by heightened demand rather than low supply. The inflow of new listings remained at pre-pandemic levels, but the outflow due to sales was unusually high, which fed into the low inventory. By mid-2022, rising mortgage rates moderated demand, allowing invento...| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
U.S. productivity is growing slower than in the past. Meanwhile, sales have become increasingly concentrated in the largest businesses. Analysis suggests that IT innovation may have facilitated the rise in concentration by reducing the cost for large firms to enter new markets. This contributed to booming productivity growth from 1995 to 2005. Though large firms are more profitable, their expansion may have increased competition and reduced profit margins within markets. Lower profit margins ...| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
In recent years, the personal saving rate in the United States has fallen sharply, and it is now at a very low level compared either to U.S. historical experience or to the savings behavior of many other industrialized countries. From 1980 through 1994, the U.S. saving rate averaged 8%; thereafter, it fell steeply, and since mid-2000, with allowance made for the tax rebates that boosted household saving in the months of July, August, and September 2001, it has averaged approximately 1%.| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
State-level unemployment claims can provide a real-time measure of national labor market conditions and the overall state of the economy. A rapid and widespread buildup of stress in state labor markets usually signals the start of a recession. In mid-2024, some widely followed indicators of recession risk flashed red. However, analysis of state-level data indicates that labor market declines were not as widespread as they had been in previous recessions. Applying this analysis to the latest d...| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
The unemployment rate has risen over half a percentage point since the second quarter of 2023. Individual survey data underlying the unemployment rate can help in assessing which labor market transitions account for this rise. One dominant factor appears to be a fall in the job-finding rate—the share of unemployed individuals finding employment. The duration of unemployment has also increased recently. In past decades, these patterns have frequently occurred during the onset of recessions, ...| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
The weekly Labor Market Stress Indicator (LMSI) tracks state-level labor market developments in real time to better understand labor market conditions as they| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
A new weekly indicator based on data for state-level unemployment claims provides timely information on the economy’s health status.| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
U.S. households accumulated significantly more wealth following the pandemic onset than would have been expected without the pandemic shock. Overall excess household wealth—measured as households’ inflation-adjusted net worth beyond pre-pandemic projections—peaked in late 2021 at $13 trillion, then rapidly fell to zero in late 2022, where it broadly remained through the third quarter of 2023. This rise and fall can be attributed mainly to financial assets, particularly equity holdings. ...| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
U.S. households built up savings at unprecedented rates following the strong fiscal response and lower consumer spending related to the pandemic. Despite recent rapid drawdowns of those funds, estimates suggest a substantial stock of excess savings remains in the aggregate economy. Since 2020, households across all income levels have held a historically large share of savings in cash or other easily accessible forms. Estimates suggest that those funds could be available to support personal sp...| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Economic activity in the Twelfth District slowed slightly during the April to mid-May reporting period. Employment levels were generally stable amid some layoffs and attrition without replacement. Wages were up slightly, and prices across industries rose modestly. Retail sales and demand for consumer and business services softened somewhat. Manufacturing activity declined slightly and conditions in agriculture and resource-related sectors weakened somewhat. Conditions in residential and comme...| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
The zero lower bound is the concept that the federal funds rate would not be cut below zero percent. This lower bound constraint can limit the effectiveness of monetary policy when rates are at or near the zero lower bound, especially during recessions. In our Economic Letter, The Zero Lower Bound Remains a Medium-Term Risk, […]| San Francisco Fed
Although revisions to monthly payroll employment data issued in August were large, they were within the historical range. Evidence continues to suggest that the incoming data are not generally subject to greater fluctuations than in the past, according to updated SF Fed analysis.| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
This US survey examines: There is no evidence to suggest that the employment estimates produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are biased so as to favor any particular political party| Clark Center Forum
New data suggest that net migration into the United States has dropped sharply in 2025 from its historical highs, falling well below previous estimates.| San Francisco Fed
Price differences across U.S. states and regions widened during the pandemic years. In our Economic Letter, “The Changing Disparity in Prices Across States,”| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
How much variation in labor market conditions and inflation rates is there at the sub-national level? Our Regional Indicators page maps out labor market, price, and earnings data across the country.| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
MP Materials, the only active rare earths mining company in the U.S., is making great progress. And yet at the same time, the company just reported a financial loss. The contradiction illustrates the challenges involved for the U.S. in rebuilding a rare earths industrial capability.| Coalition For A Prosperous America
Note: This version is updated with results for additional tax revenue and a retaliation scenario. Key Points CPA modeled former President Trump’s recent proposal regarding a 10% universal tariff. Our simulation finds that the tariff change would increase economic growth and create opportunity for Americans through increasing incomes and job creation. Under the proposal, real…| Coalition For A Prosperous America
I spent this past weekend playing around and experimenting with some of the latest versions of generative art programs. I’ve always enjoyed creating character designs and story outlines since I was a kid, but never had the talent for visual art. So it was fun to explore what these programs are currently capable of. I […]| Lyn Alden
