The zero lower bound is the concept that the federal funds rate would not be cut below zero percent. This lower bound constraint can limit the effectiveness of monetary policy when rates are at or near the zero lower bound, especially during recessions. In our Economic Letter, The Zero Lower Bound Remains a Medium-Term Risk, […]| San Francisco Fed
Although revisions to monthly payroll employment data issued in August were large, they were within the historical range. Evidence continues to suggest that the incoming data are not generally subject to greater fluctuations than in the past, according to updated SF Fed analysis.| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
This US survey examines: There is no evidence to suggest that the employment estimates produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are biased so as to favor any particular political party| Clark Center Forum
The COVID-19 pandemic is causing severe disruptions to daily life and economic activity. Reliable assessments of the economic fallout in this rapidly evolving situation require timely data. Existing sentiment indexes are useful indicators of current and future spending but are only available with a lag or have a short history. A new Daily News Sentiment Index provides a way to measure sentiment in real time from 1980 to today. Compared with survey-based measures of consumer sentiment, this in...| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Inflation has remained at levels well above the Federal Reserve’s inflation goal of 2% for over a year. Separating the underlying data from the personal consumption expenditures price index into supply- versus demand-driven categories reveals that supply factors explain about half of the run-up in current inflation levels. Demand factors are responsible for about one-third, with the remainder resulting from ambiguous factors. While supply disruptions are widely expected to ease this year, t...| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
After eight years of economic recovery, inflation remains below the FOMC’s target. Dissecting the underlying price data by spending category reveals that low inflation largely reflects prices that are relatively insensitive to overall economic conditions. Notably, modest increases in health-care prices, which have been held down by mandated cuts to the growth of Medicare payments, have helped moderate overall inflation. Further slow growth in health-care prices is likely to remain a drag on...| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
New data suggest that net migration into the United States has dropped sharply in 2025 from its historical highs, falling well below previous estimates.| San Francisco Fed
The housing market experienced historically low levels of inventory along with rapid price growth in the two years following the onset of the pandemic. Analysis of national and county-level housing data suggests this price surge was fueled by heightened demand rather than low supply. The inflow of new listings remained at pre-pandemic levels, but the outflow due to sales was unusually high, which fed into the low inventory. By mid-2022, rising mortgage rates moderated demand, allowing invento...| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Price differences across U.S. states and regions widened during the pandemic years. In our Economic Letter, “The Changing Disparity in Prices Across States,”| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Housing prices surged as housing inventories dropped to historically low levels in the first two years following the onset of the pandemic. In our Economic| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
How much variation in labor market conditions and inflation rates is there at the sub-national level? Our Regional Indicators page maps out labor market, price, and earnings data across the country.| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
China dominates all phases of global solar energy equipment manufacturing.| Coalition For A Prosperous America
MP Materials, the only active rare earths mining company in the U.S., is making great progress. And yet at the same time, the company just reported a financial loss. The contradiction illustrates the challenges involved for the U.S. in rebuilding a rare earths industrial capability.| Coalition For A Prosperous America
Note: This version is updated with results for additional tax revenue and a retaliation scenario. Key Points CPA modeled former President Trump’s recent proposal regarding a 10% universal tariff. Our simulation finds that the tariff change would increase economic growth and create opportunity for Americans through increasing incomes and job creation. Under the proposal, real…| Coalition For A Prosperous America
I spent this past weekend playing around and experimenting with some of the latest versions of generative art programs. I’ve always enjoyed creating character designs and story outlines since I was a kid, but never had the talent for visual art. So it was fun to explore what these programs are currently capable of. I […]| Lyn Alden