On the strength of its close relationship with the Trump national security team, its large army, and its 1979 peace treaty with Israel, Egypt has become an indispensable actor in nearly all the key security files facing the Near East. From Libya in the west to Iran in the east, Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi […] The post Egypt Becomes Central to Middle East Peace and Security appeared first on The Soufan Center.| The Soufan Center
On October 30, U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping met on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in South Korea. This highly anticipated meeting—the first one between the two leaders since 2019—has been touted as charting the course for the future of U.S.-People’s Republic of China (PRC) relations. Trump’s first term fundamentally shifted U.S. policy on China from engagement to competition, notably by imposing s...| The Soufan Center
U.S. President Donald Trump began the first leg of his Asia tour on Sunday with a visit to Malaysia, where he oversaw the signing of a historic peace agreement between Thailand and Cambodia, long at odds over their shared border. The signing of the agreement, which Trump coined the “Kuala Lumpur Peace Accords,” was preceded by a ceasefire deal that he helped broker in […] The post Trump Launches Asia Tour with Thai–Cambodian Peace Deal and New Trade Push appeared first on The...| The Soufan Center
Nearly a year after longtime Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad was toppled by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a rebel faction aligned at one point with al-Qaeda, the Islamic State seized upon power vacuums within the country to recruit new members, launch fresh attacks, and destabilize Ahmed al-Sharaa’s nascent government. After the fall of Assad, Islamic State […] The post Islamic State Wages a Guerrilla Insurgency Throughout Eastern Syria appeared first on The Soufan Center.| The Soufan Center
A debate is raging among major stakeholders over whether the Trump 20 Point Plan for resolving the Gaza conflict is advancing, stalled, or, at worst, failing. Last week, a succession of top U.S. officials, including the key Gaza mediators Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, Vice President J.D. Vance, and, finally, Secretary of State […] The post Trump Team Facing Challenges in Ongoing Effort to Implement Gaza Peace Plan appeared first on The Soufan Center.| The Soufan Center
Tensions between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continue to rise amid the over two-year civil war as the RSF’s targeting of the Sudanese capital of Khartoum and its main airport has persisted. The SAF reclaimed Khartoum from the RSF in March by recapturing the presidential palace and government headquarters […] The post War Without End: How Drone Warfare and Failed Diplomacy Are Fragmenting Sudan appeared first on The Soufan Center.| The Soufan Center
Türkiye has been a primary beneficiary of the geostrategic reordering of the Middle East region since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel. Israel’s successful campaign against the Islamic Republic of Iran and its non-state allies has altered the strategic architecture of the region, but its use of overwhelming force against Hamas in Gaza […] The post Türkiye Expands into the Middle East Void appeared first on The Soufan Center.| The Soufan Center
On the first day of his inauguration, U.S. President Donald Trump identified drug cartels as terrorist groups. Since then, the United States has been ramping up assets — both military and intelligence — to modify its force posture, assuming a more aggressive approach toward combating violent drug trafficking organizations and transnational criminal groups (reflagged as […] The post Is the United States Preparing for a War with Drug Cartels and Transnational Criminal Gangs? appeared firs...| The Soufan Center
On Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited U.S. President Trump in Washington to press for long-range “Tomahawk” cruise missiles, as Ukraine faces renewed pressure from Russia in the nearly four-year war. While U.S. relations with Ukraine had initially soured when President Trump took office earlier this year, they began to improve this summer as Trump […] The post Washington Continues to Push for Diplomatic End to Russia’s War in Ukraine appeared first on The Souf...| The Soufan Center
Syria’s interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin last Wednesday represented geostrategy intended to ensure that major outside powers play a positive role in — rather than spoil — Syria’s political and economic transition. He seeks, in large part, to convey that Syria is no longer an arena for […] The post Syria Exploits Great Power Competition in Drive for Stability and Security appeared first on The Soufan Center.| The Soufan Center
In the past month, unidentified drones — widely believed to be Russian — have menaced Europe, intruding into foreign airspace and causing major disruptions, including temporary airport shutdowns. The wave of incursions began in earnest on September 9, when several drones flew over Polish airspace, prompting the closure of airports in Warsaw, Rzeszów, Lublin, and […]| The Soufan Center
As the second anniversary of the October 7 Hamas attack approaches, U.S. and regional diplomats are as pessimistic as ever that the conflict in Gaza can be brought to a conclusion. Israel’s failed strike on a meeting of Hamas leaders in Doha on September 9 appeared intended to — and did — derail ongoing diplomacy. The Israeli […]| The Soufan Center
An emergency summit of the Arab League and Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) convened in Doha yesterday to discuss a response to the Israeli strikes last week targeting Hamas leadership. Arab and Islamic leaders gathered to express solidarity with Qatar, denounce the Israeli attack, and warn that such actions risk upending regional stability and efforts […]| The Soufan Center
Israel’s failed attempt to decapitate Hamas’ political leadership on Tuesday has called into question many of the assumptions Arab Gulf states and other regional leaders have held for decades. Since the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, the Gulf states have relied on a U.S.| The Soufan Center
Israel launched airstrikes targeting a Hamas senior leadership meeting in Qatar’s capital, Doha, yesterday. Eyewitnesses reported multiple blasts in the West Bay Lagoon area in Doha, an area popular with tourists and home to many foreign embassies, schools, supermarkets, and residential compounds. Footage released afterward showed massive explosions, with smoke towering above the city as […]| The Soufan Center
As Egypt and Qatar try to forge a ceasefire that would cut short Israel’s offensive against Gaza City, leaders in Cairo and other major Arab capitals are also moving forward with efforts to assemble a viable “day after” plan to govern and secure the Gaza Strip in a postwar period. U.S. and regional leaders assess that mounting Israel Defense Forces (IDF) casualties and an expanding global outcry over the severe humanitarian conditions in Gaza will eventually compel Israeli Prime Ministe...| The Soufan Center
Iran’s leaders are reacting forcefully to the challenge to their carefully crafted national security architecture posed by Israeli and U.S. military action over the past year.| The Soufan Center
U.S. President Donald Trump met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday to discuss a possible peace deal for Ukraine, marking Putin’s first visit to the U.S. since 2007. Notably absent was Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, whose delegation was not invited to join the talks. Zelenskyy is scheduled to meet with President Trump […]| The Soufan Center
With U.S President Donald Trump’s deadline for Moscow to reach a ceasefire deal with Kyiv originally set for today, the White House announced an imminent meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. A top Kremlin aide stated that the meeting would take place “in the coming days,” and the scheduled sit-down appears to be […]| The Soufan Center
The sharp deterioration of the humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip is forcing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to face choices he has been able to avoid in the nearly two years since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel. In March, Netanyahu brushed aside a ceasefire to resume ground operations in Gaza in […]| The Soufan Center
For more than six months, Trump officials have sought to bring an end to the war in Gaza, anticipating that ending the conflict will open opportunities to broaden Middle East integration and shift the regional balance of power away from Iran and its constellation of non-state armed allies.| The Soufan Center
On July 20, al-Shabaab, al-Qaeda’s branch in East Africa, recaptured the towns of Sabiid and Anole, located roughly 40 kilometers southwest of Mogadishu in Somalia’s Lower Shabelle region| The Soufan Center
On Friday, the United States House of Representatives passed a final vote approving President Donald Trump’s proposal to cut $9 billion from public broadcasting and foreign aid. Among the foreign aid reductions were $800 million in refugee assistance, $496 million for natural disaster relief, and, most notably, $4.15 billion from programs aimed at strengthening economies […]| The Soufan Center
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Monday. During the meeting, both leaders emphasized the strength of their ties and condemned what they called a “completely unprovoked act of aggression” by Israel and the United States. While Russia has offered Iran moral support, many are left wondering what, […]| The Soufan Center
On Monday, Iran retaliated for the U.S. strike on three key nuclear sites by launching a missile assault on the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which normally hosts nearly 10,000 U.S. and allied forces that enable the U.S. to project power and secure the Gulf region. The base houses the forward headquarters for U.S. […]| The Soufan Center
The outbreak of war between Israel and Iran presents a profound geopolitical test for the People’s Republic of China (PRC), exposing the structural limits of Beijing’s ambitions in the Middle East and its global strategy. Beijing has enjoyed strong economic, energy, and trade ties with countries in the region — walking a tightrope between rival […]| The Soufan Center
On Thursday, claiming U.S. talks with Iran would not halt what Israel views as an inexorable Iranian march toward constructing working nuclear weapons, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu implemented longstanding plans to try to militarily decapitate Iran’s military and nuclear program leadership and destroy key Iranian nuclear and missile sites. Israel’s onslaught caught the Iranian […]| The Soufan Center
After a steep drop in operational tempo in late 2024 and early 2025 when the Assad regime imploded, the Islamic State (IS) in Syria has since increased its attack frequency month over month, targeting both security forces and soft targets in territories controlled by the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Syrian transitional government. […]| The Soufan Center
After an over two-month blockade, the first major influx of humanitarian aid entered the Gaza Strip late last week. Over 100 trucks carrying flour, baby food, and medical equipment had entered by last Thursday, according to the UN, and Israeli authorities have stated they have allowed 300 trucks total by last Friday. The aid reportedly […]| The Soufan Center
Reinforcing the focus of his trip last week to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on promoting U.S. business and economic relationships in the region, President Trump stressed his intent to forge a comprehensive nuclear agreement with Iran rather than use force against it. At his first stop in Saudi Arabia, Trump […]| The Soufan Center
As they did after the previous two rounds of talks that began April 12, U.S. and Iranian officials described Saturday’s direct and indirect discussions in Muscat, Oman, as positive and productive. U.S. Special Envoy for the Middle East Steven Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi again led the discussions. In contrast to the prior […]| The Soufan Center
One year of war against the Hamas organization in the Gaza Strip and four weeks of a major offensive against Lebanese Hezbollah have severely damaged both groups and decapitated their leaderships. However, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s government has not fully accomplished its core objectives either in Gaza or against Hezbollah. Both groups either resist […]| The Soufan Center
Israel’s killing of top Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Rafah, Gaza, has apparently not closed the wide gap between the strategies of U.S. and Israeli leaders on an end-game for the conflict raging in the region. Landing in Berlin late last week, after Israel confirmed Sinwar’s death, President Biden, referring not only to the war […]| The Soufan Center
Israeli Security Forces confirmed yesterday that Yahya Sinwar, leader of Hamas and de-facto ruler of Gaza, was killed in combat on Wednesday during an ambush by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) in Rafah. Sinwar’s death marks a significant victory for Israel, especially given his role in orchestrating the brutal October 7 attacks on Israel. It […]| The Soufan Center
The evolution of regional conflict since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel has moved Iran’s nuclear program back to the top of debate between U.S. and Israeli leaders over options to address the threat from Iran. U.S. leaders at one time thought they had largely resolved the issue of Iran’s nuclear advances by […]| The Soufan Center
Over the past five years, Iran has sought to ease tensions with the Arab states of the Persian Gulf, which are grouped in a four-decade partnership, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). With the exception of Bahrain, which hosts the headquarters for U.S.-led naval forces and accuses Iran of supporting its Shia Muslim oppositionists, all six […]| The Soufan Center
Speaking earlier this week at the annual threat conference hosted by the Cipher Brief in Sea Island, Georgia, CIA Director William Burns was asked about the situation with Iran’s nuclear program. Burns told the assembled crowd, many of whom were veterans of the U.S. intelligence community, that “[W]e do not see evidence today that the […]| The Soufan Center
In the year since the October 7 Hamas attack, Israel and Iran have moved beyond their decade-long “shadow war” of tit-for-tat intelligence operations against each other’s interests to direct conflict bordering on sustained, all-out war. As a consequence, Iranian and Israeli leaders are each searching for “escalation dominance” against the other. Israel’s Prime Minister Binyamin […]| The Soufan Center
In September 2023, U.S. National Security Adviser (NSA) Jake Sullivan submitted an article for publication in Foreign Affairs magazine, arguing the Middle East region “was quieter than it has been for decades.” A few weeks later, Hamas’ incursion into Israel and its subsequent permutations have upended virtually all the assumptions and assessments that factored into […]| The Soufan Center
The Arab states of the Persian Gulf have all been key U.S. security partners since U.S. officials mobilized regional and global allies to launch a military campaign to reverse Iraq’s 1990 invasion and occupation of Kuwait. In the years since, and particularly following the U.S.-led overthrow of Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq in 2003, Iran […]| The Soufan Center
Over the past three months, the United States and allied nations have undertaken a range of military actions to try to deter the Houthi movement of Yemen from conducting ballistic and cruise missile and armed drone attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea.| The Soufan Center
