Interdependent economies are the hallmark of our globalized world, held together by webs of global supply chains now being reshaped amid political instability. Populist politics, renewed interest in economic protectionism, the growing Great Power Competition between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the United States (U.S.), as well as disruptive events such as the […] The post Weaponized Interdependence: Supply Chains Reconfigure Globally appeared first on The Soufan Center.| The Soufan Center
Since Trump’s 2018 exit from the landmark 2015 Iran nuclear agreement (JCPOA), during his first term, it was perhaps inevitable that Iran and the six major powers (the United States, United Kingdom, France, Russia, the People’s Republic of China and Germany) would face a crisis over a key provision of the agreement — the ability of […] The post Major Powers Try to Avoid Crisis Over Iran Sanctions “Snapback” appeared first on The Soufan Center.| The Soufan Center
Western counterterrorism analysts are frequently asked to evaluate the terror threat landscape and assess which terrorist groups are the most dangerous. In many ways, this gets to the heart of the question—how do we accurately assess whether a terrorist group is a success, or failure, or something in between? For most Western countries attempting to […] The post What Determines Whether a Terrorist Group is Considered Successful? appeared first on The Soufan Center.| The Soufan Center
Iran’s leaders are reacting forcefully to the challenge to their carefully crafted national security architecture posed by Israeli and U.S. military action over the past year. The post Iran Resists Disarmament of Its Regional Allies appeared first on The Soufan Center.| The Soufan Center
The Gaza conflict continues to defy U.S. and regional efforts to achieve a resolution, as both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas see leverage in pursuing the fighting while also indicating openness to a negotiated settlement. Last week, developments on both diplomacy as well as military tracks accelerated, as Israel moved forward with its plans to […] The post Talking and Fighting Intersect in Gaza appeared first on The Soufan Center.| The Soufan Center
Security in northwestern Nigeria is deteriorating rapidly amid a surge of violent, coordinated attacks by a host of non-state armed groups. The theater of conflict in northwestern Nigeria exhibits a distinct hybrid security landscape where criminal economies, communal grievances, and jihadist insurgency converge, blurring distinctions between organized crime and ideology. The crisis — characterized by […] The post From Criminality to Insurgency: The Convergence of Bandits and Jihadists in...| The Soufan Center
On 15 August, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that Iraq had successfully repatriated over 25,000 – around 80 percent – of its nationals from the al-Hol and al-Roj detention camps in northeast Syria. This uptick in the repatriation of Iraqi nationals from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)-controlled camps, which accommodate thousands of family members of […] The post The Prisons and Detention Camps in Syria Deserve a Greater Sense of Urgency appeared first on The Soufan Center.| The Soufan Center
India is one of the latest countries to be affected by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda, which has dampened relations following decades of rapprochement. The Trump administration set an initial 25 percent tariff on Indian goods in early August and an additional 25 percent tariff for India’s purchase of Russian oil — effective August 27 […] The post Trump’s Tariffs Push New Delhi Closer to Beijing, Testing U.S.-India Ties appeared first on The Soufan Center.| The Soufan Center
An armed clash at a government agricultural office in late July laid bare an escalating power struggle between Iraq’s national institutions, including the office of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, and a parallel structure of militia groups, some of which often act independently and can challenge the Iraqi leadership. U.S. officials and global diplomats characterize […] The post Iraqi Militias Come Under Pressure to Demobilize appeared first on The Soufan Center.| The Soufan Center
U.S. President Donald Trump met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday to discuss a possible peace deal for Ukraine, marking Putin’s first visit to the U.S. since 2007. Notably absent was Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, whose delegation was not invited to join the talks. Zelenskyy is scheduled to meet with President Trump […]| The Soufan Center
With U.S President Donald Trump’s deadline for Moscow to reach a ceasefire deal with Kyiv originally set for today, the White House announced an imminent meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. A top Kremlin aide stated that the meeting would take place “in the coming days,” and the scheduled sit-down appears to be […]| The Soufan Center
The sharp deterioration of the humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip is forcing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to face choices he has been able to avoid in the nearly two years since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel. In March, Netanyahu brushed aside a ceasefire to resume ground operations in Gaza in […]| The Soufan Center
For more than six months, Trump officials have sought to bring an end to the war in Gaza, anticipating that ending the conflict will open opportunities to broaden Middle East integration and shift the regional balance of power away from Iran and its constellation of non-state armed allies.| The Soufan Center
On July 20, al-Shabaab, al-Qaeda’s branch in East Africa, recaptured the towns of Sabiid and Anole, located roughly 40 kilometers southwest of Mogadishu in Somalia’s Lower Shabelle region| The Soufan Center
On Friday, the United States House of Representatives passed a final vote approving President Donald Trump’s proposal to cut $9 billion from public broadcasting and foreign aid. Among the foreign aid reductions were $800 million in refugee assistance, $496 million for natural disaster relief, and, most notably, $4.15 billion from programs aimed at strengthening economies […]| The Soufan Center
After 12 days of missile and drone exchanges between Iran and Israel, and the U.S. striking Iranian nuclear facilities last week prior to a ceasefire, global oil and gas markets remained on high alert, reminding the world once again how energy markets and geopolitics are inextricably linked. The price of Brent crude fluctuated as the […]| The Soufan Center
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Monday. During the meeting, both leaders emphasized the strength of their ties and condemned what they called a “completely unprovoked act of aggression” by Israel and the United States. While Russia has offered Iran moral support, many are left wondering what, […]| The Soufan Center
On Monday, Iran retaliated for the U.S. strike on three key nuclear sites by launching a missile assault on the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which normally hosts nearly 10,000 U.S. and allied forces that enable the U.S. to project power and secure the Gulf region. The base houses the forward headquarters for U.S. […]| The Soufan Center
The outbreak of war between Israel and Iran presents a profound geopolitical test for the People’s Republic of China (PRC), exposing the structural limits of Beijing’s ambitions in the Middle East and its global strategy. Beijing has enjoyed strong economic, energy, and trade ties with countries in the region — walking a tightrope between rival […]| The Soufan Center
The conflict between Israel and Iran has continued to escalate, with Israel now claiming complete aerial superiority over western Iran, including Tehran, after eliminating Iranian missile launchers and surface-to-air missiles. In both the April and October exchanges last year, Israel targeted Iranian air defense systems, including in the October attack, four S-300 systems, according to […]| The Soufan Center
On Thursday, claiming U.S. talks with Iran would not halt what Israel views as an inexorable Iranian march toward constructing working nuclear weapons, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu implemented longstanding plans to try to militarily decapitate Iran’s military and nuclear program leadership and destroy key Iranian nuclear and missile sites. Israel’s onslaught caught the Iranian […]| The Soufan Center
After a steep drop in operational tempo in late 2024 and early 2025 when the Assad regime imploded, the Islamic State (IS) in Syria has since increased its attack frequency month over month, targeting both security forces and soft targets in territories controlled by the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Syrian transitional government. […]| The Soufan Center
After an over two-month blockade, the first major influx of humanitarian aid entered the Gaza Strip late last week. Over 100 trucks carrying flour, baby food, and medical equipment had entered by last Thursday, according to the UN, and Israeli authorities have stated they have allowed 300 trucks total by last Friday. The aid reportedly […]| The Soufan Center
Reinforcing the focus of his trip last week to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on promoting U.S. business and economic relationships in the region, President Trump stressed his intent to forge a comprehensive nuclear agreement with Iran rather than use force against it. At his first stop in Saudi Arabia, Trump […]| The Soufan Center
As they did after the previous two rounds of talks that began April 12, U.S. and Iranian officials described Saturday’s direct and indirect discussions in Muscat, Oman, as positive and productive. U.S. Special Envoy for the Middle East Steven Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi again led the discussions. In contrast to the prior […]| The Soufan Center
One year of war against the Hamas organization in the Gaza Strip and four weeks of a major offensive against Lebanese Hezbollah have severely damaged both groups and decapitated their leaderships. However, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s government has not fully accomplished its core objectives either in Gaza or against Hezbollah. Both groups either resist […]| The Soufan Center
Israel’s killing of top Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Rafah, Gaza, has apparently not closed the wide gap between the strategies of U.S. and Israeli leaders on an end-game for the conflict raging in the region. Landing in Berlin late last week, after Israel confirmed Sinwar’s death, President Biden, referring not only to the war […]| The Soufan Center
Israeli Security Forces confirmed yesterday that Yahya Sinwar, leader of Hamas and de-facto ruler of Gaza, was killed in combat on Wednesday during an ambush by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) in Rafah. Sinwar’s death marks a significant victory for Israel, especially given his role in orchestrating the brutal October 7 attacks on Israel. It […]| The Soufan Center
The evolution of regional conflict since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel has moved Iran’s nuclear program back to the top of debate between U.S. and Israeli leaders over options to address the threat from Iran. U.S. leaders at one time thought they had largely resolved the issue of Iran’s nuclear advances by […]| The Soufan Center
Over the past five years, Iran has sought to ease tensions with the Arab states of the Persian Gulf, which are grouped in a four-decade partnership, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). With the exception of Bahrain, which hosts the headquarters for U.S.-led naval forces and accuses Iran of supporting its Shia Muslim oppositionists, all six […]| The Soufan Center
Speaking earlier this week at the annual threat conference hosted by the Cipher Brief in Sea Island, Georgia, CIA Director William Burns was asked about the situation with Iran’s nuclear program. Burns told the assembled crowd, many of whom were veterans of the U.S. intelligence community, that “[W]e do not see evidence today that the […]| The Soufan Center
In the year since the October 7 Hamas attack, Israel and Iran have moved beyond their decade-long “shadow war” of tit-for-tat intelligence operations against each other’s interests to direct conflict bordering on sustained, all-out war. As a consequence, Iranian and Israeli leaders are each searching for “escalation dominance” against the other. Israel’s Prime Minister Binyamin […]| The Soufan Center
In September 2023, U.S. National Security Adviser (NSA) Jake Sullivan submitted an article for publication in Foreign Affairs magazine, arguing the Middle East region “was quieter than it has been for decades.” A few weeks later, Hamas’ incursion into Israel and its subsequent permutations have upended virtually all the assumptions and assessments that factored into […]| The Soufan Center
The Arab states of the Persian Gulf have all been key U.S. security partners since U.S. officials mobilized regional and global allies to launch a military campaign to reverse Iraq’s 1990 invasion and occupation of Kuwait. In the years since, and particularly following the U.S.-led overthrow of Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq in 2003, Iran […]| The Soufan Center
Iranians will go to the polls on Friday, June 28, in a special election to replace President Ibrahim Raisi, who, along with Iran’s Foreign Minister, was killed in an accidental helicopter crash in northern Iran on May 19.| The Soufan Center
Over the past three months, the United States and allied nations have undertaken a range of military actions to try to deter the Houthi movement of Yemen from conducting ballistic and cruise missile and armed drone attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea.| The Soufan Center