Since 2020, real wages have fallen far short of their pre-Covid trend. In a new working paper, Steve Kamin and I ask, Will a Recovery in Real Wages Obstruct Progress toward Disinflation? Here’s the abstract from the paper, along with a key figure: Many observers, including officials at the Federal Reserve, have focused on the … Continue reading Would a Recovery in Real Wages Make the Fed’s Job Harder?→| John Roberts Macroeconomics
The economy in 2022 was remarkably resilient to higher interest rates and tighter financial conditions. Although residential construction fell, consumer spending continued to expand. The labor mark…| John Roberts Macroeconomics
I have a new note, co-authored with fellow Fed alum Steve Kamin, that asks “How Will the Interaction of Wages and Prices Play Out in the Last Mile of Disinflation?” We estimate a model of wage-pric…| John Roberts Macroeconomics
This post is the latest of a series that uses a small-scale macroeconomic model to interpret the latest edition of the Federal Open Market Committee’s Summary of Economic Projections; here’s a link…| John Roberts Macroeconomics
As in posts earlier this year (here’s a link to the previous one), I interpret the outlook in the FOMC’s latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) through the lens of a simple macroeconomic mode…| John Roberts Macroeconomics
