An analysis of how the seat vote model in Meridiem performed, and some analysis of possible areas of improvement for election modelling.| Armarium Interreta
What ended up happening Although there are still some votes to go, at this point, all districts in the 2021 Western Australian state election have pretty much been “decided” – i.e. the remaining vote to be counted is very unlikely to change the winner of the seat. Labor looks to have won 53 of theContinue Reading... How Meridiem performed – Part IContinue Reading...| Armarium Interreta
With any prediction or forecast, a lot of focus usually goes to the most likely outcome without appropriate consideration given to nearly-as-likely outcomes. Hence, in the first of what we hope will become a running series, we’ve taken outcomes from both ends of our model’s margin of error (95% CI) for the major parties (Labor,Continue Reading... Upside/Downside: WA 2021Continue Reading...| Armarium Interreta
If you haven’t had a look at our Western Australian 2021 forecast yet, it’s up and running here. Forecasts are useful little devils – they help to translate certain pieces of evidence (e.g. a poll saying Labor is ahead 68-32) into useful information (e.g. that means that given historical accuracy, Labor has a greater thanContinue Reading... How we intend to judge our WA 2021 forecastContinue Reading...| Armarium Interreta
Introduction (I promise this part is relevant) Let’s say you live somewhere in a rural town in the middle of the Australian outback. You come across a random person ranting about how there’s a giant arctic wolf running around and eating people. Do you believe them? Do you take shelter immediately and start checking forContinue Reading... Arctic Wolves in PollingContinue Reading...| Armarium Interreta
Introduction Welcome to our first Australian election forecast! If you haven’t seen it already, check out the forecast page over here. (if you want to skip the background and commentary, click here) Western Australians go to the polls on 13/March/2021 to elect a new state government, and the result is considered to be all butContinue Reading... How our Western Australia state model works (Meridiem 2021)Continue Reading...| Armarium Interreta