Look closer, and you'll notice the big errors were always there under the hood. It's just that we never really focused on them.| Armarium Interreta
At the 2019 Australian federal election, four separate pollsters under-estimated the Coalition vote and over-estimated the Labor vote/Labor two-party-preferred, leading to one of the worst polling errors seen at an Australian federal election since the 1980s. In response to this error, one pollster had their contract terminated (Ipsos), two have made significant, documented changes toContinue Reading... Do State Election Polling Errors Predict Federal Election Polling Errors?Continue Reading...| Armarium Interreta
Introduction (I promise this part is relevant) Let’s say you live somewhere in a rural town in the middle of the Australian outback. You come across a random person ranting about how there’s a giant arctic wolf running around and eating people. Do you believe them? Do you take shelter immediately and start checking forContinue Reading... Arctic Wolves in PollingContinue Reading...| Armarium Interreta
In our development of our Western Australian forecast, one thing I noticed was that state voting-intention polls (state polls from here on out) of WA tend to be quite favourable for the party in power. On a two-party-preferred (2pp) basis, the incumbent government in WA has tended to perform 1.8% worse in their election-day resultContinue Reading... State polling has historically skewed to incumbents. Will that continue?Continue Reading...| Armarium Interreta