Look closer, and you'll notice the big errors were always there under the hood. It's just that we never really focused on them.| Armarium Interreta
At the 2019 Australian federal election, four separate pollsters under-estimated the Coalition vote and over-estimated the Labor vote/Labor two-party-preferred, leading to one of the worst polling errors seen at an Australian federal election since the 1980s. In response to this error, one pollster had their contract terminated (Ipsos), two have made significant, documented changes toContinue Reading... Do State Election Polling Errors Predict Federal Election Polling Errors?Continue Reading...| Armarium Interreta
Note: a fair bit more technical than usual, if you want to skip to what voting intention may have looked like with an honeymoon-adjusted left-anchored model in 2016-2019, click here. If you just want to read the summary for what this means for polling in the current (2019 – 2021/2022) term, click here. My interestContinue Reading... Anchoring, Honeymoons, and Voting Intention in the 2016 – 2019 TermContinue Reading...| Armarium Interreta
This is an addendum to another piece I wrote, in which I attempt to model both pollster herding and sample bias as possible explanations for the significant polling error seen at the 2019 Australian federal election. If you haven’t read that, it’s available here; it’s probably helpful to go through some of the background onContinue Reading... Addendum: Pollster Herding and Sample BiasContinue Reading...| Armarium Interreta
Using a model of pollster herding and sampling bias, we examine hypotheses for the polling error seen in the 2019 Australian federal election.| Armarium Interreta