At the 2019 Australian federal election, four separate pollsters under-estimated the Coalition vote and over-estimated the Labor vote/Labor two-party-preferred, leading to one of the worst polling errors seen at an Australian federal election since the 1980s. In response to this error, one pollster had their contract terminated (Ipsos), two have made significant, documented changes toContinue Reading... Do State Election Polling Errors Predict Federal Election Polling Errors?Continue Reading...| Armarium Interreta
What’s the Shy Tory effect? The term “shy Tory” originates, as many wacky nicknames for political factions do (see: “Whig”), from the UK. It emerged in the aftermath of the 1992 UK general election, where a race which polls suggested was a tie with Labour narrowly ahead turned out to instead be a sizeable winContinue Reading... Is There A Shy Tory Effect In Australian Polling?Continue Reading...| Armarium Interreta
This is an addendum to another piece I wrote, in which I attempt to model both pollster herding and sample bias as possible explanations for the significant polling error seen at the 2019 Australian federal election. If you haven’t read that, it’s available here; it’s probably helpful to go through some of the background onContinue Reading... Addendum: Pollster Herding and Sample BiasContinue Reading...| Armarium Interreta
Using a model of pollster herding and sampling bias, we examine hypotheses for the polling error seen in the 2019 Australian federal election.| Armarium Interreta