An examination of how the electoral map shifts if Labor continues to trade voters in historically-Labor electorates for voters in historically-Liberal electorates.| Armarium Interreta
A follow-up to our piece on improving uniform swing, prompted by an interesting question about the problem of seat realignments.| Armarium Interreta
How data from older elections can help, and why our forecast differs from a uniform swing in its prognostications for Colton and Hartley.| Armarium Interreta
In Australian politics, there’s often some discussion over whether a certain 2-party swing would be enough for one side or another to win a majority, with reference to the electoral pendulum prior to the election. Such a pendulum lines up all the Labor-held seats on one side, and all the Coalition-held seats on another, andContinue Reading... How Predictive is the Pre-Election Pendulum?Continue Reading...| Armarium Interreta