I got long IBIT (BTC etf) when my April calls expired ITM. IBIT continued rallying, I was happy to stay long. However, the vol screened cheap. I decided to “replace” — I sold my long shares and bought calls. Deciding which calls to buy was tricky. So tricky it inspired this post. The heart of … Continue reading calendar spreads through the eyes of a vol trader→ The post calendar spreads through the eyes of a vol trader appeared first on Party at the Moontower.| Party at the Moontower
Notable short seller Andrew Left’s firm Citron Research gave his “all roads lead to $40” pronouncement on X this week regarding PLTR 2.90%↑ : Created with TradingView Give Palantir the same $100 billion valuation that Databricks just earned. Where does that put the stock? $40. The exact same math we saw when comparing Palantir to OpenAI. Tyler pinged me before the stock dove … Continue reading Betting on PLTR to $40 →| Party at the Moontower
In the discord, I was asked a good question that’s lingered for me. I’ll share the fuller response here but first the question: When you are talking about the ‘mantra’ to reset discipline – “I am buying/selling A for $X because B is $Y bid/offered” – are you thinking in terms of actually putting on … Continue reading timing the market→ The post timing the market appeared first on Party at the Moontower.| Party at the Moontower
A conversation with Claude Opus 4 KA: What is the compact formula for daily option pl that relates realized variance – implied variance? The compact formula for daily option P&L that relates realized variance to implied variance is: Daily P&L ≈ ½ × Vega × (σ²_realized – σ²_implied) × Δt Where: Vega = option’s vega … Continue reading Sparring with AI: Theoretical options p/l vs discrete hedging →| Party at the Moontower
Friends, A grab bag of practical finance nerd stuff today. Behind the paywall, subs get an exclusive complimentary pass to the 3-hour commodity trading seminar I did for QuantInsider. It’s especially useful for equity folks looking over the fence (especially relevant these days with oil in the news.) 🧵A thread on COIN vol since the … Continue reading Netting risk, “The Hopeless”, John Arnold and more →| Party at the Moontower