As China continues to flood its external market with cheap goods, Germany finds itself to be a willing partner, trading its low value-added manufacturing sector for the disinflation of cheap goods. ... READ MORE >| The Real Economy Blog
The euro, yuan, pound and yen do not have the adequate depth to support the liquidity needs of the global systematically important banks. ... READ MORE >| The Real Economy Blog
Reliance on the front end of the Treasury curve, and a drawdown in the repo facility, open the government to the risk of increased volatility, ... READ MORE >| The Real Economy Blog
Beijing’s current policies are likely to continue what is shaping up to be an extended period of private sector deleveraging. ... READ MORE >| The Real Economy Blog
Once one excludes the more volatile trade and inventory data, growth advanced at a much softer pace of 1.2% implied by final sales to private domestic purchasers.| The Real Economy Blog
We now expect growth to slow to 1.1% this year, inflation to rise above 3% and a 4.4% unemployment rate.| The Real Economy Blog
We expect the 10-year yield to remain in a range between 4% and 4.5% amid of elevated volatility and now expect it to finish the year near 4.35% with risk of a lower rate.| The Real Economy Blog
National average prices that were over $5 per gallon in early 2022 at the start of the Ukraine war dropped to $3.30 in May.| The Real Economy Blog
The extend-and-pretend deadlines on tariffs have turned into a never-ending moving of the goal posts that investors now discount.| The Real Economy Blog