I got long IBIT (BTC etf) when my April calls expired ITM. IBIT continued rallying, I was happy to stay long. However, the vol screened cheap. I decided to “replace” — I sold my long shares and bought calls. Deciding which calls to buy was tricky. So tricky it inspired this post. The heart of … Continue reading calendar spreads through the eyes of a vol trader→ The post calendar spreads through the eyes of a vol trader appeared first on Party at the Moontower.| Party at the Moontower
Notable short seller Andrew Left’s firm Citron Research gave his “all roads lead to $40” pronouncement on X this week regarding PLTR 2.90%↑ : Created with TradingView Give Palantir the same $100 billion valuation that Databricks just earned. Where does that put the stock? $40. The exact same math we saw when comparing Palantir to OpenAI. Tyler pinged me before the stock dove … Continue reading Betting on PLTR to $40 →| Party at the Moontower
A conversation with Claude Opus 4 KA: What is the compact formula for daily option pl that relates realized variance – implied variance? The compact formula for daily option P&L that relates realized variance to implied variance is: Daily P&L ≈ ½ × Vega × (σ²_realized – σ²_implied) × Δt Where: Vega = option’s vega … Continue reading Sparring with AI: Theoretical options p/l vs discrete hedging →| Party at the Moontower