Since 1980, the world excluding China, South America, and US (ROW) has produced fewer grains and oilseeds than it has consumed. Its production deficit has grown when measured in metric tons but declined as a share of domestic consumption. ROW’s production deficit relative to domestic consumption explains more of the year-to-year variation in the US composite grain and oilseed price than does the combined China - South America production surplus/deficit relative to domestic consumption.| farmdoc daily
Dale Lattz, Gary Schnitkey, Nick Paulson, and Carl Zulauf - Machinery cost estimates for 2025 have been released and are available in the Management section on the farmdoc website. Machinery costs are updated every two years, with the last update occurring in 2023. As is usual, estimated machinery costs have increased, with most increases in the 1% to 14% range. The increases from 2023 to 2025 are less than the increases estimated between 2021 and 2023, when many costs increased by as much as...| farmdoc daily
Since 1980, US exports of grains and oilseeds have grown, but at a slower rate than US domestic consumption, resulting in a declining relative role of exports in the US grain-oilseed sector. The decline reflects many factors, including higher per capita income, which has increased consumption of animal protein, and the longstanding US goal of energy self-sufficiency. It is also consistent with US domestic demand being a more certain demand expansion path than exports.| farmdoc daily
Recent projections for the 2026 crop year suggest a fourth consecutive year of negative farmer returns to corn-soybean rotations in Illinois on cash rented farmland. The current return for owned and cash rented farmland is the same. Farmland ownership has also provided capital returns through increased farmland values. Low farmer returns from cash rent farmland relative to land prices make it difficult for farmers to use rented farmland to build capital to support a farmland purchase.| farmdoc daily
Since 1980, South America’s increasing excess of its production over its consumption of grains and oilseeds has almost completely offset China’s growing excess of its consumption over its production of…| farmdoc daily