On September 5th President Donald J. Trump signed an executive order updating tariff rules in line with ongoing trade negotiations. It designates coffee as an “unavailable natural resource,” eligible for exemption but only through future trade deals. 50% tariffs on Brazilian coffee have already shaken America’s market, and appear to be staying put. Brazil supplies 8M bags of coffee annually to the US, but roasters and traders are quickly pivoting to alternatives.| Coffee Intelligence
Many of the world’s coffee traders are now running on fumes. After a decade of relatively benign markets, the past five years have been a blur of price shocks, shipping snarls, rising labour costs, and now the extra burden of US tariffs. Smaller exporters and cooperatives face the sharpest strain, raising the question of who survives and how.| Coffee Intelligence
In coffee shops around the world, we’re still seeing exciting, experimental microlots for those “in the know,” and blends of lower grade Brazilian coffees for milky espresso-based drinks. Once-profitable "mid-80s" lots that balanced quality and scale have become unviable in today’s market. With the C price holding above $2/lb, many mid-tier coffees now cost as much as experimental microlots did in the past. This is eroding margins and collapsing demand, leaving specialty importers an...| Coffee Intelligence