The housing market experienced historically low levels of inventory along with rapid price growth in the two years following the onset of the pandemic. Analysis of national and county-level housing data suggests this price surge was fueled by heightened demand rather than low supply. The inflow of new listings remained at pre-pandemic levels, but the outflow due to sales was unusually high, which fed into the low inventory. By mid-2022, rising mortgage rates moderated demand, allowing invento...| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
State-level unemployment claims can provide a real-time measure of national labor market conditions and the overall state of the economy. A rapid and widespread buildup of stress in state labor markets usually signals the start of a recession. In mid-2024, some widely followed indicators of recession risk flashed red. However, analysis of state-level data indicates that labor market declines were not as widespread as they had been in previous recessions. Applying this analysis to the latest d...| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
The unemployment rate has risen over half a percentage point since the second quarter of 2023. Individual survey data underlying the unemployment rate can help in assessing which labor market transitions account for this rise. One dominant factor appears to be a fall in the job-finding rate—the share of unemployed individuals finding employment. The duration of unemployment has also increased recently. In past decades, these patterns have frequently occurred during the onset of recessions, ...| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
