With millions of users and new Web3 features, could Pi finally take off? See what the future might hold in our Pi Coin price prediction 2030| crypto.news
In this article, we’ll shed light on some of the best crypto to invest in August 2025, which may likely outperform many of their competitors.| crypto.news
Background The goal here is strong internal validation after fitting a pre-specified regression model or one that was derived using backwards step-down variable selection such that the same variable selection procedure can be repeated afresh for each bootstrap repetition. So strong internal validation means estimating a variety of model performance measures in a way that does not reward them for overfitting and that penalizes for all aspects of model selection and derivation that utilized the...| Statistical Thinking
In the previous post of the series, I promised to show how both the Economic Power and Casualties Rates hypotheses can be combined within the same computational model. Yesterday, the SocArxiv finally published my preprint describing this model (it took several weeks to resolve some bureaucratic issues), and I now ... Read more| Peter Turchin
Find out why the Magician is the ultimate manifestation card, and tips on how to use if for your best possible outcomes.| Whats-Your-Sign.com
Anyone interested in how to improve intelligence analysis might want to check out at the latest issue of the American Psychologist. It is a special issue devoted to understanding how research psychologists help solve real-world problems as parts of multidisciplinary teams (to riff on the title of the free-to-download introductory paper). Three papers struck me […]| Tim van Gelder
That’s Fatebook with a T. Made by the impressive folks at Sage. What is Fatebook for? It’s for predicting things. Specifically, it’s for publicly or privately logging your estimates of the likelihood of certain future events. Which events? It’s totally up to you. You can predict the course of history,...| Beeminder Blog
Background This article considers the following setting. Suppose we have one continuous predictor and an outcome variable and we wish to estimate a smooth, usually nonlinear, relationship between and some property of such as the mean or the probability that exceeds some specified value. When there is no censoring on , one can estimate such a smooth relationship nonparametrically using a standard smoother such as loess or the R “super smoother” supsmu. Semiparametric ordinal regression, us...| Statistical Thinking
In March 2024, I delivered a series of four lectures on philosophy and neuroscience at Ruhr University. They were part of a named lecture series called the Carnap Lectures. Lecture #2 is for a general audience. The other three were attended mostly by philosophy faculty. Three Lessons about Emotion Concepts as Tools for Living Three […]| Lisa Feldman Barrett
Overview Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is a gold standard estimation procedure in non-Bayesian statistics, and the likelihood function is central to Bayesian statistics (even though it is not maximized in the Bayesian paradigm). MLE may be unpenalized (the standard approach) or various penalty functions such as L1 (lasso, absolute value penalty), and L2 (ridge regression; quadratic) penalties may be added to the log-likelihood to achieve shrinkage (aka regularization). I have been doing...| Statistical Thinking
Programming note: So, first I should apologise for the LONG.... break between blogposts. This started when I decided not to do my usual an...| qoppac.blogspot.com
These days most game companies adopt some form of analytics: a process whereby data is collected on how well the game performs as well as how players behave within it. These data are processed and analyzed, and results serve to inform decision making and business processes across companies. Game Analytics is what allows major commercial…| Game Analytics Resources
Which predictive model for the results of the election was best – or the least bad?| Martin Rosenbaum
What’s the good of virtue, asks Nan Craig The Borough Press, £16.99 No harm can come to a good man, said Aristotle, and the hero of James Smythe’s latest novel, Lawrence Walker, is a Good Man. So say (repeatedly) his family, his campaign manager, the people in the small town where he lives and the people he represents as a Senator. So when a video prediction of his chances as a Presidential candidate appears to show him threatening his terrified family, it’s something of a surprise to ...| Arcfinity
but as Tim Maughan discovers, this is easier said than done. One thing every sane, sensible science fiction writer swears they’ll never do is try and accurately predict the future. It’s an especially unwise idea if you work on short, near-future timescales. Most likely you’re going to get it wrong, and your work is going to look dated and naive. Worse, you might actually get it right - but way too early, making your work look conservative, your predictions blunted by a cowardly imaginat...| Arcfinity
Background Consider the problem of comparing two treatments by doing squential analyses by avoiding putting too much faith into a fixed sample size design. As shown here the lowest expected sample size will result from looking at the developing data as often as possible in a Bayesian design. The Bayesian approach computes probabilities about unknowns, e.g., the treatment effect, and one can update the current evidence base as often as desired, knowing that the current information has made pre...| Statistical Thinking
In my 100th Tech 101 blog post, I am writing about a topic that I am yet to cover — Machine Learning. With the field now fairly mature and plenty of programming languages and companies supporting it with excellent software, it is high time for me to educate my readers on what exactly machine learning … Continue reading "Machine Learning: A primer" The post Machine Learning: A primer appeared first on Tech 101.| Tech 101