This paper rethinks how financial regulators should design stress tests. Rather than treating stress testing as a pass/fail assessment, the authors show it should be viewed as an exercise in information gathering. Designing Risk Scenarios was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.| Alpha Architect
Buffer ETFs have moved from niche idea to mainstream product in just a few years. That’s not just growth—it’s a trend! But what’s behind it? Are buffer ETFs a breakthrough in risk management… or are they more complex and potentially riskier than they appear? How Buffer ETFs Promise to Protect You (and Why They Can’t Do It All) was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.| Alpha Architect
Rather than streamlining oversight, overlapping mandates between regulatory agencies create confusion, redundancy, and sometimes outright inconsistency. Regulatory fragmentation drags down efficiency. was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.| Alpha Architect
Letdin, Seagraves, and Sirmans advanced our understanding of REIT asset pricing by developing and rigorously testing six REIT-specific return factors—size, value, momentum, earnings quality, low volatility, and short-term reversal—using decades of data. Unlocking REIT Returns: Real Estate Investment Factors was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.| Alpha Architect
A longstanding belief in market finance is that short-term funding markets like repo are relatively stable and transparent. But this new research turns that idea on its head. Leverage is dangerous if you can’t borrow in a crisis was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.| Alpha Architect
The Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF (Ticker: IVOL) delivered a strong performance in the first half of 2025, as the US interest rate curve began to normalize. This steepening of the spot and forward 2s10s curves has caused IVOL to outperform in the first half of the year: IVOL +12.26%. After posting […]| KFA Funds
Is volatility (the standard deviation of returns) a good measure of the risk that investors actually care about?| Alpha Architect
This paper explores how value, momentum, low-risk, and size factors explain differences in corporate bond returns across firms and over time.| Alpha Architect
Younger and less-wealthy individuals are more prone to increasing their exposure to riskier assets in low-interest environments. Investors experiencing losses are more likely to seek higher yields.| Alpha Architect
The empirical research (for example, here, here, here and here) on insider trading demonstrates that insider transactions have significant predictive power for| Alpha Architect
Over 75% of the cross-sectional variation in P/E ratios is driven by future return differences, not growth expectations. This challenges many common asset pricing models and changes how investors should think about value, growth, and long-term return forecasting.| Alpha Architect
1. IntroductionA previous article, “Trend-Following Filters – Part 7” , examined several digital filters, commonly used by technical analysts to aid in making trading decisions, from a digital signal processing (DSP) time domain perspective.| Alpha Architect
Increased executive effort correlates with positive earnings surprises, higher cumulative abnormal returns post-earnings announcements, and narrower credit default swap spreads. Moreover, portfolios constructed based on changes in executive effort demonstrate significant risk-adjusted returns, underscoring the tangible value of diligent leadership.| Alpha Architect
Nancy Davis, founder and CIO of Quadratic Capital Management, believes the market is finally returning to a more normal state—and that’s exactly why the Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF’s (Ticker: IVOL) is performing so well. IVOL is up 11.82% YTD compared to the Bloomberg TIPS index which has returned 2.89% and the Bloomberg […]| KFA Funds
The Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF’s (Ticker: IVOL) NAV is up +13.46% YTD, whereas the Bloomberg TIPS index is up 2.36% YTD as of April 21st.1 What has been happening in 2025 is not a tail event. It is just the start of the normalization of the interest rate markets. Note that […]| KFA Funds
In the rates market, the start of 2025 could not be more different than the start of 2024. Last January, the forward curve was expected to steepen, meaning the curve was priced to be higher in the future. Instead, the curve steepened far less than expected and flattened the forwards. For instance, the 18 month […]| KFA Funds
Yield curve inversions have historically been associated with impending recessions. The Federal Reserve Bank of NY maintains a chart tracking its perception of the probability of a recession over the next 12 months based on the shape of the yield curve. Currently, the NY Fed sees a 67.3% likelihood of a recession in the upcoming […] The post Yield Curve Inversion Opportunities: A Role for IVOL appeared first on KFA Funds.| KFA Funds
Nancy Davis of Quadratic Capital Management recently joined Maggie Lake’s “My Life in Four Trades” to discuss pivotal moments that guided her career path. After trading her Southern upbringing for a career in New York, Davis shared her experience navigating the European debt crisis, lessons learned from shorting Japan, and her research challenging gold as […] The post From Goldman to CIO: IVOL Portfolio Manager Nancy Davis’ Life in Four Trades appeared first on KFA Funds.| KFA Funds
Over the years, permanent jobs for change managers and related roles have become increasingly common in organizations. Here's how the market is evolving.| www.prosci.com
Suppose you have $3.6 million to buy some real estate. What can you get? In the nicer suburbs of the Northeast, you could buy a very comfortable house. Nothing flashy. Five or six bedrooms, a newer kitchen, a large level lot with mature landscaping, maybe a pool, and good schools. But perhaps you want more […]| KFA Funds
Transcript Hi, I’m Nancy Davis. I’m the founder of Quadratic Capital and the portfolio manager for the Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF ticker IVOL, I-V-O-L. TIPS and the Founding of Quadratic Capital Management When I started my career in the late 90s at Goldman Sachs, that was right when the U.S. Treasury […]| KFA Funds
Index and Sector Performance The KFA MLM Index, which is tracked by the KraneShares Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF, finished the quarter up 4.0%. Commodity (+3.9%) and Currency (+0.3%) markets contributed to performance, while Global Fixed Income (-1.5%) markets detracted from results. Interest income added 134bps. For the twelve months ending March 2024, […]| KFA Funds
The KraneShares Value Line® Dynamic Dividend Equity Index ETF (Ticker: KVLE) is designed to deliver high dividend income from higher quality and more conservative stocks. The single largest holding as of early March? Microsoft, a massive growth company that has a less than massive 0.72% dividend yield. The second and third largest holdings are Apple […]| KFA Funds
What are managed futures? Futures markets were created over 150 years ago for a single purpose, to facilitate the transfer of price risk away from producers and consumers. A managed futures portfolio acts as an important market participant, accepting that price risk and providing liquidity to commercial interests. Futures markets are traded on public exchanges and are […]| KFA Funds
Bullish on bonds? Think rate cut expectations are too aggressive? Hoping to lock in today’s yields before they start falling? Want to add carry to your portfolio but leery of taking more credit risk? The Quadratic Deflation ETF (BNDD) is an actively managed government bond ETF that seeks to benefit from lower growth, deflation, lower […]| KFA Funds
Introduction KraneShares and Mount Lucas Management are pleased to announce that the KFA Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index ETF (Ticker: KMLM) achieved a three-year track record in December 2023. This anniversary marks a significant milestone for the fund, which has delivered consistent uncorrelated returns since its inception. In recent years, managed futures strategies have grown in popularity […]| KFA Funds
Index and Sector Performance The KFA MLM Index, which is tracked by the KFA Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF (Ticker: KMLM), finished the quarter up 6.8%. Global Fixed Income (+3.3%) and Commodity (3.2%) markets contributed positively to performance, while Currency (-1.1%) markets detracted. Interest income added 133bps. For the twelve months ending September […]| KFA Funds