In some fields, researchers who end up with time series of two variables of interest (X and Y) like to analyze (reciprocal) lagged effects between them. Does X affect Y at a later point in time, and does Y affect X at a later point in time? These questions are usually addressed with some sort of pan| The 100% CI
The convergence of AI and neuroscience opens exciting possibilities for understanding human cognition and driving innovation in deep learning. The post Decoding the brain, inspiring AI: How Rahul Biswas is bridging neuroscience and artificial intelligence first appeared on TechTalks.| TechTalks
Mediation analysis has gotten a lot of flak, including classic titles such as “Yes, but what’s the mechanism? (Don’t expect an easy answer)” (Bullock et al., 2010), “What mediation analysis can (not) do” (Fiedler et al., 2011), “Indirect effect ex machina” (The 100% CI, 2019), “In psychology everyth| The 100% CI
For any central statistical analysis that you report in your manuscript, it should be absolutely clear for readers why the analysis is being conducted in the first place – that is, the analysis goal should be transparently communicated. A helpful concept here is the so-called theoretical estimand, t| The 100% CI
Reviewer notes are a new short format with brief explanations of basic ideas that might come in handy during (for example) the peer-review process. They are a great way to keep Julia from writing 10,000-word-posts,but make her write ten 1,000-word-posts instead and also a great| The 100% CI
In The Anxious Generation, Jon Haidt argues that social media is driving a mental health crisis among teens. It's a compelling thesis, widely discussed in the media, mostly accepted by my students and even by me—for a while. I felt I owed this book a read given that this is a topic many of my studen| The 100% CI
Summer in Berlin – the perfect time and place to explore the city, take a walk in the Görli, go skinny dipping in the Spree, attend an overcrowded, overheated conference symposium on cross-lagged panel models (#noAircon). So that’s what I did three weeks ago at the European Conference on Personality| The 100% CI
TL;DR: Tell your students about the potential outcomes framework. It will have (heterogeneous) causal effects on their understanding of causality (mediated through unknown pathways), I promise. It’s probably fair to say that many psychological researchers are somewhat confused about causal infere| The 100% CI
Here we are going to look at several diagnostic plots are helpful when attempting to answer a causal question. They can be used to visualize the target population, balance, and treatment effect heterogeneity. Setup I’ve simulated data to demonstrate the utility of the various plots. In each simulation, we have four pre-treatment variables: var1, var2, var3, and var4, a treatment, t, and an outcome y. I have also fit a propensity score model for each and calculated ATE, ATT, and overlap weig...|
To celebrate the 40th anniversary of the paper The Central Role of the Propensity Score in Observational Studies for Causal Effects published in Biometrika in 1983, the journal Observational Studies had a special issue highlighting the methods in the paper and developed since. This led us to take a closer look at this seminal paper, and in doing so we noticed mention of a visual diagnostic tool that we haven’t see used often but might be useful for exploring potential treatment effect heter...|
On this weeks episode of Casual Inference we talk about a “Causal Quartet” a set of four datasets generated under different mechanisms, all with the same statistical summaries (including visualizations!) but different true causal effects. The figures and tables are from our recent preprint: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2304.02683.pdf Given a single dataset with 3 variables: exposure, outcome and covariate (z) how can statistics help you decide whether to adjust for z? It can’t! For example her...|
In SNL’s cold open last night, “President Joe Biden” suggested that the COVID-19 surge we are seeing in the US is due to people seeing Spider-Man: No Way Home. If people would just stop seeing this film, he argues, cases will go back down! Interesting hypothesis, let’s take a looksy at the data, shall we? And now, a message from President Joe Biden. pic.twitter.com/Q8TglFNBlF — Saturday Night Live - SNL (@nbcsnl) January 16, 2022 I pulled the domestic box office data from the-number...|