Understanding the economic and financial consequences of natural disasters is a major concern for researchers and policymakers. The way in which overlapping natural disaster systems interact, as exemplified by the recent fires in Los Angeles being exacerbated by strong winds, is a major area of study in environmental science but has received comparatively little attention in the economics literature. Examining these potential interactions would likely be important for financial institutions, ...| Liberty Street Economics
Recently, there has been renewed attention on the natural rate of interest—often referred to as “r-star”—and whether it has risen from the historically low levels that prevailed before the COVID-19 pandemic. The natural interest rate is the real (inflation-adjusted) interest rate expected to prevail when supply and demand in the economy are in balance and inflation is stable. Some commentators claim that the prior decline in r‑star has reversed, pointing to the recent rise in future...| Liberty Street Economics
Precious metals prices finally lost some steam after a bullish H1, but there are still plenty of factors in play that could affect pricing later.| MetalMiner
By Noorpal Kaur Deputy Editor Middle income countries according to the World Bank are nations with gross national income per capita between $1,136 and $13,845. They are further classified into lower and upper middle income countries. In the past, several economies have pulled themselves out of extreme poverty and have entered into the middle income […]| Arthashastra
The EU steel industry is bracing for significant changes amid changes to the import safeguard system, tariffs, and the upcoming CBAM.| MetalMiner
On September 14, I had the opportunity to present a guest lecture to Professor Rich Clarida’s Columbia SIPA course on Global Monetary Policy in the 21st Century. My lecture was entitled, How Aggressively Did the Fed Stabilize the Economy Pre-ZLB? (Here’s a link to the slides.) My talk looked into how aggressively the Fed acted … Continue reading Guest lecture: How Aggressively Did the Fed Stabilize the Economy Pre-ZLB?→| John Roberts Macroeconomics
On March 30, I participated in a very stimulating conference hosted by Kenyon College entitled What’s My Dollar Worth? Inflation’s Causes, Consequences and Cures. The conference included speakers with a broad range of views on the causes of recent high inflation and what policy can do about it. My own contribution compared the current situation … Continue reading Expectations, Then and Now→| John Roberts Macroeconomics
Since 2020, real wages have fallen far short of their pre-Covid trend. In a new working paper, Steve Kamin and I ask, Will a Recovery in Real Wages Obstruct Progress toward Disinflation? Here’s the abstract from the paper, along with a key figure: Many observers, including officials at the Federal Reserve, have focused on the … Continue reading Would a Recovery in Real Wages Make the Fed’s Job Harder?→| John Roberts Macroeconomics
The economy in 2022 was remarkably resilient to higher interest rates and tighter financial conditions. Although residential construction fell, consumer spending continued to expand. The labor mark…| John Roberts Macroeconomics
A key question in economic policy is how labor market tightness affects wage inflation and ultimately prices. In this post, we highlight the importance of two measures of tightness in determining wage growth: the quits rate, and vacancies per searcher (V/S)—where searchers include both employed and non-employed job seekers. Amongst a broad set of indicators, we find that these two measures are independently the most strongly correlated with wage inflation. We construct a new index, called t...| Liberty Street Economics
Economic surveys are very popular these days and for a good reason. They tell us how the folks being surveyed—professional forecasters, households, firm managers—feel about the economy. So, for instance, the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) website displays an inflation uncertainty measure that tells us households are more uncertain about inflation than they were pre-COVID, but a bit less than they were a few months ago. The Philadelphia Fed’s Survey of Professiona...| Liberty Street Economics
U.S. construction industry woes continue as tariffs and Fed interest rates cause chaos. Although flat for June, the index will see higher prices soon.| MetalMiner
Aluminum prices slowed their ascent this month, but the Midwest Premium found a brand new high. What does this mean for the short term outlook?| MetalMiner
The price of copper is again flirting with all-time highs. MetalMiner explores the primary drivers affecting the fluctuating global prices.| MetalMiner
Steel prices remained mostly steady throughout June, but a series of factors could affect global markets throughout H2 and beyond.| MetalMiner
Julia Giese and Jacqueline Koay We live in an era of rapid change, complexity and uncertainty. Over recent years, severe global shocks have been frequent, with profound implications for our economy…| Bank Underground
I moved a motion entitled higher education, knowledge and funding. In my speech I placed the crisis of HE funding in the context of macro-economic policy and as the results of Labour’s hostile environment. I had been inspired to write| davelevy.info
We were addressed by Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor of the Exchequer. This article summarises the speech, and offers some comments. Rachel Reeves, the chancellor of the exchequer, spoke to Congress. In her speech, She covered a number of issues, starting| davelevy.info
The Global Precious Metals MMI (Monthly Metals Index) saw a strong rally from mid-May to mid-June. Precious metals prices like gold, silver, platinum and| MetalMiner
Since World War II, the U.S. economy has experienced twelve recessions—one every sixty-four months, on average. Though infrequent, these contractions can cause considerable pain and disruption, with the unemployment rate rising by at least 2.5 percentage points in each of the past four recessions. Given the consequences of an economic downturn, businesses and households are perennially interested in the near-term probability of a recession. In this post, we describe our research on a relate...| Liberty Street Economics
The sharing economy, a term that has gained significant traction over the last decade, represents a shift from traditional ownership to shared access to goods and services facilitated by technology and peer-to-peer transactions. This transformative model has reshaped industries, influenced consumer behaviors, and presented both opportunities and challenges in the […] The post The Sharing Economy appeared first on Quickonomics.| Quickonomics
The balance of trade is a key economic indicator that measures the difference between a country’s exports and imports over a certain period. It is a significant part of the current account, which also includes other transactions like income from the foreign investment and transfer payments. The balance of trade […] The post What is the Balance of Trades? appeared first on Quickonomics.| Quickonomics
Mercantilism is a key economic theory from the 16th to the 18th century that focuses primarily on strengthening a nation’s economic power through government regulation of trade and commerce. It advocates for a favorable balance of trade to ensure that a country exports more than it imports, thereby increasing its […] The post What is Mercantilism? appeared first on Quickonomics.| Quickonomics
Trickle-down economics, a term often used in the socio-economic discourse, refers to the notion that benefits provided to corporations or the wealthy will trickle down to benefit those less well-off. These benefits might come from tax cuts or incentives that make money more readily available for investment and business expansion, […] The post Trickle-Down Economics appeared first on Quickonomics.| Quickonomics
The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) is a way to understand how populations change over time. It shows how societies go from having high birth and death rates to having low birth and death rates as they develop and become more industrialized. This model is very important because it helps us […] The post The Demographic Transition Model appeared first on Quickonomics.| Quickonomics
The accelerator effect theory states that investment levels are largely influenced by the rate of change of GDP, which is the aggregate measure of economic output. According to the theory, this change in GDP indirectly affects the demand for capital goods. The accelerator effect is the brainchild of economists Thomas […] The post The Accelerator Effect Theory appeared first on Quickonomics.| Quickonomics
Through economic analysis, we gain valuable insights into how discrimination influences various aspects of our society.| Quickonomics
In recent days, there has been a good deal of discussion in the business press and on economics Bluesky about the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank’s “nowcast” of GDP for the first quarter of 2025. The suggestion is that the US may already be entering a recession.| J. W. Mason
An evaluation of the natural rate of interest, or R-star, focusing on real-time estimates extending back thirty years to the mid-1990s.| Liberty Street Economics
A look at global inflation trends since the onset of the pandemic and how they may result from correlated or global shocks.| Liberty Street Economics
An analysis of the correlation of pre- and post-pandemic U.S. and global inflation dynamics using the Multivariate Core Inflation Trend (MCT) model.| Liberty Street Economics
J. R. Hicks, who introduced the concept of intertemporal equilibrium to English-speaking economists in Value and Capital, was an admirer of Carl Menger, one of the three original Marginal Revolutio…| Uneasy Money
A look at whether the observed slowdown in U.S. manufacturing productivity growth since 2010 is due to a decline in research and development.| Liberty Street Economics
The Renewables MM) dropped further in December, setting up a potentially volatile year for battery metals and their buyers.| MetalMiner
As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to assume office in January 2025, industrial metal prices are poised for a number of shifts such as...| MetalMiner
The global steel industry may be looking down the barrel at some big changes as Trump's win, potential tariffs, and auto industry issues mount.| MetalMiner
Precious metals prices experienced quite a ride from October to November, with debates raging as to where they might head next.| MetalMiner
Are we seeing the first offshoots of a recovery in China’s steel industry? Some media outlets report that Chinese steel output turned positive for the first| MetalMiner
Good construction news has been hard to come by recently, but the latest Fed rate cuts have had a positive impact on the industry so far.| MetalMiner
Over the coming year, the Fed will be reviewing its framework for setting monetary policy. In their previous policy review, which wrapped up in August 2020, the Fed adjusted its framework to address the low-interest-rate environment of the 2010s. The past few years have of course presented the different set of challenges related to high … Continue reading Toward a more robust Federal Reserve policy framework→| John Roberts Macroeconomics
Del Negro takes a look at whether professional forecasters' measures of uncertainty are in line with the size of the prediction errors they make.| Liberty Street Economics
Happy tax season. To celebrate the most wonderful time of the year, I wrote an explainer on marginal tax rates and what they mean for individuals with different incomes.| The Economics Review
I have a new note, co-authored with fellow Fed alum Steve Kamin, that asks “How Will the Interaction of Wages and Prices Play Out in the Last Mile of Disinflation?” We estimate a model of wage-pric…| John Roberts Macroeconomics
A productivity slowdown appears to be common across the U.S., with even the fastest-growing industries and the largest firms experiencing it.| Liberty Street Economics
[vc_row martech_row_background_position=”None”][vc_column][vc_single_image image=”2336″ img_size=”full” alignment=”center” css=””][vc_column_text css=””] On June 18, 2024, the Wharton Initiative on Financial Policy and Regulation (WIFPR) co-hosted with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) the IMF-WIFPR Conference on Financial and Real Implications of Technologies, Artificial Intelligence (AI), and Cyber Risks. This is the second annual IMF-WIFPR conference,…Read More| Wharton Initiative on Financial Policy and Regulation
U.S. household savings rose and fell at unprecedented rates following the onset of the pandemic recession. Updated estimates suggest that these excess savings have been fully spent. However, consumer spending shows no signs of losing steam, raising questions about its future path.| SF Fed
The authors consider the potential impact to the U.S. economy if China’s ongoing property sector slump were to take another leg down.| Liberty Street Economics
What is non-market climate cooperation? It’s how groups of countries can make climate value central to their dealings, with benefits across the whole economy. In 1992, nearly 200 nations agre…| Climate Value Exchange
A novel methodology uses the relationship between income and household-level inflation to construct accurate measures of changes in living standards.| Liberty Street Economics
This post is the latest of a series that uses a small-scale macroeconomic model to interpret the latest edition of the Federal Open Market Committee’s Summary of Economic Projections; here’s a link…| John Roberts Macroeconomics
The authors present an update of the economic forecasts generated by the New York Fed's dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model.| Liberty Street Economics
China's leader Xi Jinping recently laid out the goal of reaching the per capita income of "a mid-level developed country by 2035." Is this goal likely to be achieved? Not in our view. Continued rapid growth faces mounting headwinds from population aging and from diminishing returns to China's investment-centered growth model. Additional impediments to growth appear to be building, including a turn toward increased state management of the economy, the crystallization of legacy credit i...| Liberty Street Economics
This post was originally published here, as part of a series titled Demanding change by changing demand produced by environmental charity Global Action Plan. Some similar themes are explored in mor…| Critical Macro Finance
We are entering fiscal silly season. As the budget approaches, we should brace for impact with breathless reporting of context-free statistics about inflation, interest rates and government debt. T…| Critical Macro Finance
As in posts earlier this year (here’s a link to the previous one), I interpret the outlook in the FOMC’s latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) through the lens of a simple macroeconomic mode…| John Roberts Macroeconomics