GJOpen asks: "Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero?" I estimate the probability that Bank of England will set its Bank Rate below 0 is 6%. Base rate Since 1900, the Bank of England has released over 400 rates. It has never released a negative bank rate. Naively, the base rate is less than 1%: > options(digits=2) > binom.test(0, 400) Exact binomial test data: 0 and 400 number of successes = 0, number of trials = 400, p-value <2e-16 alternative hypothesis:...
