Today, human efforts drive AI progress. But at some point, all AI progress will be driven by AI. This piece analyzes the transition from human-driven to AI-driven progress. Firstly, we discuss the suddenness of the transition: how many months or years does it take to transition from human to AI-driven progress? Secondly, we turn to the size of the initial speed-up: how much faster is the initial period of AI-driven progress compared to the final period of human-driven progress? We argue that ...
