In simplified models of intelligence explosions, accelerating AI progress goes to infinity. But in reality, we will hit effective limits on AI intelligence. In this piece, we analyze the room for improvement in three inputs to AI development: software, chip technology and chip production. Setting human constraints aside, we argue that software could increase effective compute by ~10 orders of magnitude or more, chip technology by ~6 orders of magnitude, and chip production by ~5 orders of mag...
