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Why we can't take expected value estimates literally (even when they're unbiased) - The GiveWell Blog
https://blog.givewell.org/2011/08/18/why-we-cant-take-expected-value-estimates-literally-even-when-theyre-unbiased/
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While some people feel that GiveWell puts too much emphasis on the measurable and quantifiable, there are others who go further than we do in
