Here’s a question that should make every decision-maker uncomfortable: What if the sophisticated risk-management infrastructures we’ve built up aren’t just useless for most of the problems we face — but actively harmful? It isn’t that we’re bad at managing risk. We’ve actually gotten quite good at situations where we know all the possible actions and outcomes, and can assign reliably precise and accurate probabilities to each. Well-run casinos, for example, shouldn’t lose mone...
