I feel like the interesting questions are broader than this. To take a specific example, I agree that plausibly a superintelligence might not have been able to predict the outcome of the 2024 presidential election relying only on "the available polling, economic data, and lessons from history". But suppose it had broad Internet access in the runup to the election, looking at the great mass of news reports, social media, etc. My guess is that it would have been able to predict the outcome. The...
