A couple of days ago I argued that the impact of AI (in the context of LLMs) on the economy will be sanguine. This will come to the possible relief of some and to the disappointment of others. There will be no AGI, takeoff, ramp-up or other hyped-up scenarios in which AI somehow escapes its confines, becomes sentient, or sees a recursive sort of compounding of its capabilities. 2027 and beyond will come to pass without the anticipated ‘phase shift’, but rather continued incremental impro...
