AI's rapid advancement is caused by three factors: raw compute increases, algorithmic efficiency improvements, and "unhobbling" processes. In the current super-accelerated decade, we enjoy a 10,000x AI performance boost every four years, making it likely that AI will exceed top human experts by 2027. There are good arguments that AI progress past 2027 could be slower, but also that it could be even faster.| jakobnielsenphd.substack.com
The history of computing shows that increased availability of cheap compute, especially on the client side, creates opportunities for improved usability. AI will continue this trend, with vastly better usability to come. Sadly, slow growth in electricity capacity will likely delay the ability of currently-rich countries to realize the full benefits of AI for as much as 20 years.| jakobnielsenphd.substack.com
Traditional methods for accessibility have been tried for 30 years without substantially improving computer usability for disabled users. It’s time for a change, and AI will soon come to the rescue with the ability to generate a different user interface for every user, optimized for that person’s unique needs.| jakobnielsenphd.substack.com
AI is introducing the third user-interface paradigm in computing history, shifting from command-based interaction to intent-based outcome specification, where users tell the computer what they want, not how to do it, reversing the locus of control.| jakobnielsenphd.substack.com
Summary: Users spend most of their time on other websites, so they expect your site to work like all the other sites they already know. When a design deviates from users’ expectations, usability suffers. Don’t be arrogant and assume that your new design idea is so brilliant that it can overrule decades of user habituation.| jakobnielsenphd.substack.com