I’ve had questions about the use of ensembles of climate models for a while. I was helped by working through a bunch of papers which explain the origin of ensemble forecasting. I still have m…| The Science of Doom
5 posts published by scienceofdoom during July 2014| The Science of Doom
5 posts published by scienceofdoom during November 2010| The Science of Doom
What controls the frequency of tropical cyclones? Here’s an interesting review paper from 2021 on one aspect of tropical cyclone research, by a cast of luminaries in the field – Tropical Cyclone Frequency by Adam Sobel and co-authors. Plain language summaries are a great idea and this paper has one: In this paper, the authors […]| The Science of Doom
One Look at the Effect of Higher Resolution Models In #15 we looked at one issue in modeling tropical cyclones (TCs). Current climate models have actual biases in their simulation of ocean temperature. When we run simulations with and without these errors there are large changes in the total energy of TCs. In this article we’ll look […]| The Science of Doom
In #1-#6 of the “Extreme Weather” series we looked at trends in Tropical Cyclones (TCs) from the perspective of chapter 11 of the 6th assessment report of the IPCC (AR6). The six parts were summarized here. The report breaks up each type of extreme weather, reviews recent trends and then covers attribution and future projections. Both […]| The Science of Doom
Overview of Chapter 3 of the IPCC 6th Assessment Report The periodic IPCC assessment reports are generally good value for covering the state of climate science. I’m taking about “Working group 1 – the Physical Science Basis”, which in the case of the 6th assessment report (AR6) is 12 chapters. They are quite boring compared […]| The Science of Doom
In #9 we looked at an interesting paper (van Oldenborgh and co-authors from 2013) assessing climate models. They concluded that climate models were over-confident in projecting the future, at least from one perspective which wouldn’t be obvious to a newcomer to climate. Their perspective was to assess spatial variability of climate models’ simulations and compare them to […]| The Science of Doom
In #1 we saw an example of natural variability in floods in Europe over 500 years. Clearly the large ups and downs prior to the 1900s can’t be explained by “climate change”, i.e. from burning fossil fuels. If you learnt about climate change via the media then you’ve probably heard very little about natural variability, but it’s […]| The Science of Doom
Originally, I thought we would have a brief look at the subject of attribution before we went back to the IPCC 6th Assessment Report (AR6). However, it’s a big subject. In #8, and the few articles preceding, we saw various attempts to characterize “natural variability” from the few records we have. It’s a challenge. I recommend […]| The Science of Doom
In #7 we looked at Huybers & Curry 2006 and Pelletier 1998 and saw “power law relationships” when we look at past climate variation over longer timescales. Pelletier also wrote a very similar paper in 1997 that I went through, and in searching for who cited it I came across “The Structure of Climate Variability […]| The Science of Doom
In #6 we looked in a bit more detail at Imbers and co-authors from 2014. Natural variability is a big topic. In this article we’ll look at papers that try to assess natural variability over long timescales – Peter Huybers & William Curry from 2006 who also cited an interesting paper from Jon Pelletier from 1998. Here’s […]| The Science of Doom
In #5 we examined a statement in the 6th Assessment Report (AR6) and some comments from their main reference, Imbers and co-authors from 2014. Imbers experimented with a couple of simple …| The Science of Doom
Evaluating and Explaining Climate Science| The Science of Doom
6 posts published by scienceofdoom during February 2011| The Science of Doom
In Ensemble Forecasting we had a look at the principles behind “ensembles of initial conditions” and “ensembles of parameters” in forecasting weather. Climate models are a l…| The Science of Doom
In New Theory Proves AGW Wrong! I said: So, if New Theory Proves AGW Wrong is an exciting subject, you will continue to enjoy the subject for many years, because I’m sure there will be many more pa…| The Science of Doom
Many blogs write about over-simplifications of the radiative effects in climate. Many of these blog articles review simple explanations of how it is possible for atmospheric radiative effects to in…| The Science of Doom
