September | 2025 | The Market Monetarist
5 posts published by Lars Christensen during September 2025| The Market Monetarist
5 posts published by Lars Christensen during September 2025| The Market Monetarist
Another day, another politically motivated attack in the United States. This morning’s shooting at a Dallas ICE detention facility – where a sniper killed two detainees and wounded another before taking his own life prompted me to revisit a question that’s been troubling me: Is political violence actually increasing in America, or does it just […]| The Market Monetarist
The Argentine markets took a beating last week, but US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has rushed to the rescue with a remarkable promise: America will provide what amounts to unlimited support to prop up Argentina. His declaration that “all options for stabilization are on the table” – including swap lines, direct currency purchases, and buying […]| The Market Monetarist
The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points yesterday, bringing the fed funds rate to 4.00-4.25%, exactly as markets had expected. Stephen Miran – Trump’s recently appointed member to the FOMC- dissented, preferring 50bp. Notably, the two other known “doves” on the committee, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, voted with the majority rather than […]| The Market Monetarist
Many economists and market observers have expressed surprise at the apparent absence of inflationary effects from President Trump’s economic policies. I find this a bit puzzling, as I believe…| The Market Monetarist
5 posts published by Lars Christensen during August 2025| The Market Monetarist
Long-term British government bond yields are now at their highest level in almost 30 years. What is even more concerning is that the UK economy is actually slowing down, which means that nominal GDP growth must now be considered significantly lower than long-term interest rates. This is extremely critical, as it means that public debt […]| The Market Monetarist
The American economy stands at a critical juncture. President Trump’s assault on the Federal Reserve has reached an intensity that threatens the very foundations of independent economic institutions. Lisa Cook, a Federal Reserve Board member, has become the primary target of Trump’s political pressure. Despite repeated claims of dismissal, Trump has encountered formidable legal barriers. […]| The Market Monetarist
Suppose I came to you and said: “I would like to borrow a very large sum of money in order to buy massively overpriced shares. By the way, I am already drowning in debt.” What interest rate would you charge me? The answer would be either prohibitively high or a flat refusal. Yet this is […]| The Market Monetarist
Donald Trump calls it a win for American industry. Trump’s economic advisor (or what ever it is he is doing) Kevin Hassett calls it the first step towards a sovereign wealth fund. I call it R…| The Market Monetarist
If you’re a heavy user of language models, as I am, you’ll have undoubtedly noticed that the various AI models, such as ChatGPT and Claude, aren’t behaving quite as they used to. This has particularly come into focus since OpenAI launched ChatGPT 5.0 a fortnight ago. One must say that the reception has been anything […]| The Market Monetarist
In my three decades as an economist—including 15 years as Chief Analyst for Emerging Markets at Danske Bank—I’ve seen some truly bizarre economic episodes. I’ve watched Argentina default on its debt. I’ve analysed Turkey’s monetary policy madness under Erdoğan. I’ve observed Venezuela’s descent into hyperinflation. But what happened today in the United States might top […]| The Market Monetarist
I must say that the commentary surrounding Sunday’s so-called trade agreement between the US and EU has been almost universally “Trumpian” in its analysis. Nearly every commentato…| The Market Monetarist
The Hidden Third Mandate The Federal Reserve Act may soon create serious problems for Jerome Powell – or perhaps I should say “Too Late” Jerome Powell, as President Trump has take…| The Market Monetarist
The sheer mathematical impossibility of American fiscal policy never ceases to amaze me. Here we have the world’s largest economy, blessed with extraordinary dynamism and innovation, yet trap…| The Market Monetarist
The calendar reads June 13, 2025, but I’m getting flashbacks to December 1977. As Israeli fighter jets strike Iranian nuclear facilities and President Trump calls Federal Reserve Chair Jerome…| The Market Monetarist
How we transformed Market Monetarist theory into an interactive tool with Claude AI Recently, I discussed the risks of political interference in monetary policy and the potential for a 1970s-style …| The Market Monetarist
The latest University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey delivers a stark warning about U.S. monetary stability. Following Trump’s return to the presidency in the November 2024 election, i…| The Market Monetarist
In risk departments across Europe’s banks and pension funds, intense discussions are unfolding. The topic? Trump’s increasingly erratic behavior and what it means for financial stability. At first …| The Market Monetarist
As markets hang on every word from the Federal Reserve, a seismic shift in monetary policy could be just around the corner—and I don’t think investors are fully ready for this – yet. Wh…| The Market Monetarist
Yesterday, Donald Trump shared a rather remarkable post on “Truth Social” about his meeting with the International Longshoremen’s Association, where he strongly criticised automat…| The Market Monetarist
On Friday, the headlines were flashing: “Sahm rule triggered”. The reason was that with the US unemployment numbers for July coming out at 4.3%, the 3-month moving average was now 0.5 p…| The Market Monetarist
