(this is geared toward events of size 50-5000, and probably a lot less useful for e.g. a casual gathering with 5-10 friends than e.g. a 100-person weekend conference.) do before anything else: goals, date, and venue. why figure out goals, pick a date, and pick a venue before| Brass Tacks
Epistemic status: splitting hairs. Originally published as a shortform; thanks @Arjun Panickssery for telling me to publish this as a full post. There’s been a lot of recent work on memory. This is great, but popular communication of that progress consistently mixes up active recall| Brass Tacks
Unfortunately, advice has caveats.| Brass Tacks
Alex Lawsen used a great metaphor on the 80k After Hours podcast:[1] [1:38:14] …you’re rowing a boat on your own, and you’re trying to get somewhere, and you’ve got some map that you need to look at to see where| Brass Tacks
when i come across good quotes, i write them down. the below are those i collected between my last quotes post and the day i published this — november 19, 2023 through august 5, 2024. --- [T]he work that needs to be done is not a finite list of tasks,| Brass Tacks
This is a cross-post of a piece I wrote for the Manifold Substack; here's a link to the original post. I'm helping to run this, and I would be delighted to see you there! --- TLDR Manifold is hosting a festival for prediction markets: Manifest| Brass Tacks
This post is not titled “Things You Should Do,” because these aren’t (necessarily) things you should do. Many people should not do many of the items on this list, and some of the items are exclusive, contradictory, or downright the reverse of what you should do| Brass Tacks
Let’s say you’re a billionaire. You want to have a flibbleflop, so you post a prize: Make a working flibbleflop — $1 billion. There begins a global effort to build working flibbleflops, and you see some teams of brilliant people starting to work on flibbleflop engineering.| Brass Tacks
Hello! No big essay or anything. I built a map of the prediction market and forecasting ecosystem, inspired by similar maps of related fields. I want a good reference for people who want to get into the prediction market & forecasting community, so I made one. Take a peek: predictionmarketmap.| Brass Tacks
0. Readme (or don't) This is not a literature review. I'll vouch for links with an associated archived link, author name, and summary, but not the others. Last updated: Dec 2023 1. Overviews Impact Markets: The Annoying Details (a), Scott AlexanderComprehensive description of impact markets,| Brass Tacks
0: Navigation I’m aiming for a reader who knows what “prediction markets” and “adverse selection” are, who likes the first and not the second, and who enjoys systems that have neatly aligned incentives. For a primer on prediction markets, read Scott Alexander’s| Brass Tacks
of all the things that you do, what do you think you do best? what do you think you do worst? of all the things that i do, what am i worst at? where do you go to find people who think well? what do you want? what do you| Brass Tacks
Edit 4/1/2024: I no longer use this deck. Since publishing this, I think I've gotten better at learning how to use Anki effectively — I endorse some better version of this deck, whereby you memorize translations between odds and percentages, but I don't endorse this deck. Quickly translating between| Brass Tacks
Multiple-choice test scores are meant to reflect a student’s knowledge. Students estimate the right answer for each question; students who understand the content estimate the right answer more often than students who don’t. But multiple-choice tests force students to be 100% confident in one answer and 0% confident| Brass Tacks
when i come across good quotes, i write them down. the below are those i collected between october 2022 and november 2023. It is much, much easier to pick out a way in which a system is sub-optimal, than it is to implement or run that system at anything like| Brass Tacks
1. ask chatgpt 2. google it, see if someone else has already solved the problem 1. if it’s something a research paper might have solved, try asking elicit 3. set a 5-minute timer, and think about the problem for 5 minutes. don’t think for 1-2 mins then go| Brass Tacks