After an avalanche of data last week, there are more signs of a slowing economy.| stayathomemacro.substack.com
Two foundational protections of the Fed’s independence in monetary policy are under threat: the tenure of Fed officials and the control of its budget.| stayathomemacro.substack.com
The summer months should bring more clarity on how President Trump’s economic policies are affecting the economy.| stayathomemacro.substack.com
[Updated on June 21 to correct my discussion of PPI trade service margins.| stayathomemacro.substack.com
Companies aren’t so worried that they’re letting a lot of people go, but they’re also not so confident that they’re hiring a lot of people.| stayathomemacro.substack.com
The rise in the unemployment rate has raised concerns about the possibility of a recession, but the story is not as simple as the usual rules of thumb.| stayathomemacro.substack.com
Fed week. Everyone will be listening for clues on how the Fed might react to three months of disappointing inflation. It's what we won't hear that matters.| stayathomemacro.substack.com
In March 2023, the U.S. labor market continued its rock solid push forward, with 303,000 more jobs and the unemployment rate back down to 3.8%. Are there cracks below the surface? Not really.| stayathomemacro.substack.com
The Sahm rule has gotten more attention recently and predictably that has come with questions about who created it. I did. Now is a good opportunity to talk about on macro tools in general.| stayathomemacro.substack.com