Let us stop for a moment to consider all that is happening with the new administration’s new economic trade policies at ~100 days. A new tariff policy is (by design) threatening the pre-existing global trade order. This has led to the early stages of capital flight, as both the dollar and US Treasuries…Read More| The Big Picture
2005 Apprenticed Investor: The Folly of Forecasting (TheStreet.com, June 7, 2005) The Mystery of the Awful Economists (TBP March 2, 2005) 2006 The Illusory World of Economic Forecasting (The Big Picture, 2006) 2008 Worst Predictions for 2008 (TBP, December 31, 2008) 2009 Why Diss Economic Forecasters (The Big Picture, 2009) In Stock: Bad Holiday Sales Forecasts (The…Read More| The Big Picture
Sorry, Steve: Here’s Why Apple Stores Won’t Work “Few outsiders think new stores, no matter how well-conceived, will get Apple back on the hot-growth path . . . Maybe it’s time Steve Jobs stopped thinking quite so differently.” -May 21, 2001 Regular readers know I am not a big fan of predictions.…Read More| The Big Picture
Let’s Say It All Together: Nobody Knows Anything The primary elections are another case study in the futility of making predictions. Bloomberg, May 5, 2016 In “Adventures in the Screen Trade,” screenwriter William Goldman wrote that “nobody knows anything.” It is a quote that is enjoying a second life these days. The book’s…Read More| The Big Picture
From all the chatter I’ve heard on Wall Street, I get the sense that many PC analysts – long wed to the windows world – have no clue what to make of the mini Mac. I cannot say I am surprised. Just last year, one PC analyst at a bulge bracket firm suggested Apple sell…Read More| The Big Picture
This was originally published at About This Particular Macintosh, January 1998. ~~ I recently had a computer purchase discussion with my sister—She and her husband would like to have a PC so that Jake and Jamie (my niece and nephew—ages 2 1/2 and 4 1/2) can learn computers and have some fun. Every time the…Read More| The Big Picture
I discussed much of this in my Q2 2025 RWM client quarterly call on April 5. I am sharing this now because so many questions have poured in. Last Monday, I discussed the consequences of chaos. While the purposes of the new tariff policy were not well explained – some of the…Read More| The Big Picture
“Few outsiders think new stores, no matter how well-conceived, will get Apple back on the hot-growth path… Maybe it’s time Steve Jobs stopped thinking quite so differently.” —BusinessWeek, May 21, 2001 24 years to the day — May 21, 2001 — a Businessweek1 commentary explained why the newfangled Apple Stores were destined…Read More| The Big Picture
Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media| The Big Picture
The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Colombia Tolima Los Brasiles Peaberry Organic coffee, grab a seat by the fire, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • Trust in a Black Hat World: Investors and Advisors, on the state of markets, and the state of ETFs: You are on your own.…Read More| The Big Picture
Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption, and policy failures: • Déjà bubble: Can bubbles repeat? Bubbles might be especially likely to repeat today thanks to social media, which creates a hothouse environment for ideas to spread across the investor population. If we think of bitcoin investing as a virus, this virus can…Read More| The Big Picture
My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • Institutional Investors See Resilience in Commercial Real Estate: While the industry is forever changed following the pandemic, portfolio managers expect a rebound ahead. (Chief Investment Officer) • Why Gen Xers and Millennials Are Giving More Money to Their Kids Than Baby Boomers: Older generations are afraid of losing…Read More| The Big Picture
This week, I speak with Charles Ellis, author and Founder of Greenwich Associates. Prior to founding Greenwich Associates in 1972, Charles worked with the Rockefeller family investments office and Donaldson, Lufkin, and Jenrette. Charley was appointed to the faculty of the Yale School of Management and twice to the Harvard Business School. He…Read More| The Big Picture
My end-of-week morning train WFH reads: • A.I. Is Changing How Silicon Valley Builds Start-Ups: Tech start-ups typically raised huge sums to hire armies of workers and grow fast. Now artificial intelligence tools are making workers more productive and spurring tales of “tiny team” success. (New York Times) • The Rower Turned Engineer Who Helped Make…Read More| The Big Picture
Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media| The Big Picture
This week, I speak with with Melissa Smith, co-Head of Commercial Banking at of J.P. Morgan, Previously she was Co-Head of Innovation Economy and Head of Specialized Industries. She has been with JPMorgan for over 20 years. She works with founders, CEOs and CFOs, delivering a cohesive banking experience to startups and fast-growing companies.…Read More| The Big Picture
Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media| The Big Picture
This week, we speak with Michael Morris, cultural psychologist and Chavkin-Chang Professor of Leadership at the Columbia Business School. Prior to joining Columbia, he was a tenured professor at Stanford’s Graduate School of Business and Psychology Department. Morris has published over 200 articles in leading behavioral science journals and has received countless international…Read More| The Big Picture