Cliodynamics History as Science Empires rise and fall, populations and economies boom and bust, world religions spread or wither… Why do We Need Mathematical History? Seshat: Global History Databan…| Peter Turchin
As I wrote at the beginning of 2025, the previous year turned out to be quite a challenge. It took me a while to recover and, then, to deal with the “stuff” that accumulated while I was recovering. But now my personal life seems to be under control (knock on ... Read more| Peter Turchin
The year that has just ended was personally very difficult for me. First, in April my wife developed a very serious medical condition—it was really touch-and-go, and she ended up spending ten days in the hospital. Thankfully, we survived this challenge and now she is back to normal. Next came ... Read more| Peter Turchin
In the previous post of the series, I promised to show how both the Economic Power and Casualties Rates hypotheses can be combined within the same computational model. Yesterday, the SocArxiv finally published my preprint describing this model (it took several weeks to resolve some bureaucratic issues), and I now ... Read more| Peter Turchin
One thing I realized since I posted my blog series on the War in Ukraine (last one here) in July is that previously I explicitly addressed only one hypothesis (which predicts a win for Russia). But what I aim at is a scientific prediction (see Scientific Prediction ≠ Prophecy) and ... Read more| Peter Turchin
The last update on “What I am working on” was posted a year ago, and it is high time to do another. Last year was very intense. It started with preparing for the publication of my trade book, End Times, which came out on June 13 in the US and ... Read more| Peter Turchin
I went to Africa for the first time more than 30 years ago, and I was immediately hooked. Now I try to get there every year for a mind-clearing vacation — no work, just enjoying the countryside and the animals. This year I linked with two old friends of mine ... Read more| Peter Turchin
In this installment I will use the ideas discussed in previous posts to make projections. A projection is different from a forecast (and, certainly, from a prophecy) in that it is not an attempt to predict what will happen. Rather, it is a description of what would happen given certain ... Read more| Peter Turchin
Sixteen months into the war the final outcome of this conflict is still uncertain. Public statements from both sides continue to express unbounded confidence in their eventual victory (see, for example, Russia’s Strategic Failure and Ukraine’s Secure Future). But which way has the advantage swung, is known only to the ... Read more| Peter Turchin
The first part of this series gave an introduction to the Osipov-Lanchester (OL) model and illustrated the ideas with the example of the American Civil War. In this second part, my aim to extract a…| Peter Turchin
The causes of revolutions and major rebellions are in many ways similar to processes that cause earthquakes (Goldstone 1991: 35). In both revolutions and earthquakes it is useful to distinguish the…| Peter Turchin
The remarkable success of ChatGPT and other generative A.I. has inflamed the already roiling debate about how the rise of machines will affect workers, and ultimately shape our societies. Doomers p…| Peter Turchin
