Political observers can readily recall the 2024 election outcome, with Trump’s sweep of the swing states being paired with Republicans trailing elsewhere downballot. Despite an arguably-favorable m…| Split Ticket
Intro When we last looked at different partisan outcomes resulting from split-ticket voting, the Senate was our focus. To yield a worthwhile R2 value we compared Republican vote share between Presi…| Split Ticket
Introduction Understanding the extent to which the national environment changes from election to election is a critical component of post-election analysis. While changes between presidential elect…| Split Ticket
A while back, we debuted a Wins-Above-Replacement model for the US Senate that tried to assess candidate quality through answering the following question for each race: Assuming everything else (mo…| Split Ticket
When we handicapped our initial Senate ratings, we noted that this cycle might finally be the year that the Class 1 Senate map (which held contests back in 2018, 2012, 2006, and so forth) turns on …| Split Ticket
When we introduced our House model in June, Republicans and Democrats were favored in 211 seats each with 13 districts counted as tossups. At the time, Republicans had a 56% chance of retaining the…| Split Ticket
I make election maps! If you're reading a Split Ticket article, then odds are you've seen one of them. I'm an engineering student at UCLA and electoral politics are a great way for me to exercise creativity away from schoolwork. I also run and love the outdoors! You can contact me @politicsmaps on Twitter.| Split Ticket
Hi, I'm Max, and I talk politics and make election maps! You can find me at @maxtmcc on Twitter.| Split Ticket
With Governor Larry Hogan (R) term-limited, Attorney General Brian Frosh (D) retiring, and Comptroller Peter Franchot (D) running for Governor, Marylanders will enjoy a once in a blue moon opportun…| Split Ticket
Introduction This week’s edition of Watchlist brings us to two lesser-populated states with strongly Republican leanings: Nebraska and West Virginia. Neither one uses runoffs, so candidates wi…| Split Ticket
Senate After months of anxious waiting, the Republican Senate primary is finally over. Trump-endorsed venture capitalist J.D. Vance finished first with 32.2% of the vote, performing well in rural O…| Split Ticket
Introduction For this week’s edition of Watchlist, we return from a two-month primary dry spell and turn our attention to two Rust Belt states whose primaries will resume the 2022 primary ele…| Split Ticket
On March 1, Texas kicked off the 2022 election cycle with a bang by holding its first-in-the-nation primaries. But in a blockbuster schedule that included hotly-contested statewide races, perhaps n…| Split Ticket
I'm a computer scientist who has an interest in machine learning, politics, and electoral data. I'm a cofounder and partner at Split Ticket and make many kinds of election models. I graduated from UC Berkeley and work as a software engineer.| Split Ticket
My name is Harrison Lavelle and I am a political analyst studying political science and international studies at the College of New Jersey. As a co-founder and partner at Split Ticket, I coordinate our House coverage. I write about a variety of electoral topics and produce political maps. Besides elections, my hobbies include music, history, language, aviation, and fitness. Contact me at @HWLavelleMaps or harrisonwlavelle1@gmail.com| Split Ticket
I'm a political analyst here at Split Ticket, where I handle the coverage of our Senate races. I graduated from Yale in 2021 with a degree in Statistics and Data Science. I'm interested in finance, education, and electoral data - and make plenty of models and maps in my free time.| Split Ticket
A lot has happened in Colorado politics since our last update – notably the retirement of 7th District Rep. Ed Perlmutter. This article will spell out the latest updates and offer some insigh…| Split Ticket
On January 5, Colorado State Sen. Don Coram (R-Montrose) announced he would mount a primary challenge to incumbent U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt). A deal-making Republican with a bipartisan temp…| Split Ticket
The politics of New Mexico reflect its position at the crossroads of multiple cultures, polities, and societies. Today, Split Ticket dives into past and present political developments in New Mexico…| Split Ticket
With California’s new maps recently being finalized by its redistricting commission, Split Ticket takes a look at the congressional districts that have been rated as competitive in 2022 by either u…| Split Ticket
With the 2022 midterm elections under a year away, Split Ticket is pleased to introduce its Senate ratings for next November. In this preview, we’ll be covering all seats rated as potentially…| Split Ticket
There once was a colony of mice that was being attacked by a marauding cat. As the cat began to eat more and more and the mice began shrinking in fear, the colony called an emergency meeting to add…| Split Ticket
When the pre-election discourse around candidate quality pops up, my mind always goes to the famous Arthur Conan Doyle saying of how “it’s easy to be wise after the event”. It sums it up more accur…| Split Ticket
The OpeningThe 1998 gubernatorial race in the state of Illinois was a contest unlike any other the state, or the nation, has seen recently. Featuring incumbent Secretary of State George Ryan (REP),…| Split Ticket
Part 1 – How are the latest replacement primaries shaping up?Most of these primaries are still in limbo because of redistricting, so we’ll largely be focusing on the candidates. Our reportin…| Split Ticket
Welcome to the first split!Split Ticket will be sending out three different newsletters each week to keep up with our commitment to covering a wide variety of content. Each will have a specific the…| Split Ticket
A Senatorial TitanVermont’s elder statesman Patrick Leahy announced his retirement last week. The Democratic Senator was first elected in 1974 in the wake of Watergate. Leahy is the last Senate ‘W…| Split Ticket
Over the last several years, Black voters have been perhaps the most pivotal voting bloc fueling Joe Biden’s presidential aspirations. A core group of the Democratic Party, they comprise roughly 25…| Split Ticket
President Joe Biden trails former President Donald Trump by one point in a survey conducted by Split Ticket and Data For Progress. The poll was conducted online between July 1–3, 2024 with a sample…| Split Ticket
The 2024 House playing field has changed significantly since our previous official ratings update in September. In our last update, 210 seats favored Democrats and 203 favored Republicans, while th…| Split Ticket
Earlier this week, Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema announced that she would not run for re-election, ending months of speculation about the possibility of a three-way contest. This development is a …| Split Ticket
Today, voters will head to the polls to vote for a congressional representative to fill the vacancy created by former Representative George Santos’ expulsion. Both Republicans and Democrats expect …| Split Ticket
Former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan has recently announced a surprise run for the Old Line State’s open Senate seat. Hogan, a Trump critic who towed a moderate line, left office in 2023 as one of …| Split Ticket
Political battles over education are a tale as old as the government itself. From the creation of public schooling in the 1700s to clashes over book bans stretching into the modern era, education h…| Split Ticket
Most coverage of the 2024 Senate elections frames the race for the majority as resting on a knife’s edge. The logic, on paper, is sound — after all, Republicans need to flip at least two seats to t…| Split Ticket
The Upper Mississippi Delta region is home to some of the strongest and most intractable racial polarization anywhere in the country. Since the mass re-enfranchisement of black voters in the 1960s,…| Split Ticket
Media coverage of elections has presented theories of how abortion-focused messaging has allowed Democrats to beat expectations. From June 2022 and beyond, this has largely been true — with the vot…| Split Ticket
>>> Jump to WAR Table Our 2020 House wins-above-replacement (WAR) model showed that spending still matters in American politics. Among other things, the new 2022 edition proves that candid…| Split Ticket
At Split Ticket, we have repeatedly proven that candidate-driven effects fundamentally impact election results, but we have not completely addressed a more controversial question: do ideologically-…| Split Ticket
One of the biggest open questions is why recent Democratic special election performances continue to paint a completely different electoral picture than what current polling suggests. Polls continu…| Split Ticket